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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (41443)	11/15/2000 6:09:00 PM
From: Mark Konrad	Respond to of 57584

OTIf Warren Christopher shows up on your TV screen again would you then be willing to take a quarter for it?! We love garage sale bargains!--Mark & Christin--

To: Rande Is who wrote (41443)	11/15/2000 6:18:19 PM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

I completely agree with that Rande.... Ceteras Paribus though.... if no liquidty is added..which is what I am using in my model for my assumption is how i derived my assertation. Yeah, if Fed adds liquidty then we still have a ball game. I think that Greenspan is still waiting a year to decide on a full years worth of economic #'s to decide where we stand in the macro viwepoint. At some point the dollar and forign currency will have to be taken into a little consieration... so your opinion could very well be valid, if these companies can continue with there growth over and above Q3 #'s.... thing is we know consumer spending will rise in Q4... i expect that they will discount this in the Dec decision... it will be interesting...... love to see the turnout in 3-6 monthes.... Thank you for your great thoughts and keep up the fantasic work, you are outstandng member of the Si society and wanted to let you know that :) -Mogul

To: Rande Is who wrote (41443)	11/15/2000 9:46:34 PM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Rande Is: I have to side with $Mogul's take on this. While I think the NASDAQ bottom is probably in the 2700-2800 range, I do not think that the P/E multiples of the most richly priced stocks (NTAP, VRTS, JDSU, SEBL, JNPR, CIEN, ITWO, etc) fully reflect the dramatic decrease in profits and growth that is being forecast for the next quarter or two. I think these stocks can still go dramatically lower and, if they do, they will not bounce back quickly. Can you say, "Qualcomm?" I agree that the key is whether the Fed begins to lower interest rates next year. I think they have underestimated the effect of this years series of rate hikes, but I do not see them lowering rates until the Summer or Fall 2001. For this reason, I am avoiding the high-flyers in the tech sector I've listed above for the first half of 2001. Having said that, I think that the end of year 2001 will be a great investment opportunity.