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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (79170)	11/16/2000 4:08:26 AM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Douglas, RE possible recession. I don't see it. We have full employment and business is good. The underlying economy is growing, it's just the rate of growth that is slowing. In the real world of real people, things are running pretty smoothly and productivity is still rising. I don't see a currency collapse or a banking collapse, even though the banking industry stocks seem to be paying a price now for lending practices that may have been too liberal. International trade is growing and the world is becoming more like one big economy where one small part may falter but others will still forge ahead. The real protection lies in the power and control of the fed reserve and in particular, Greenspan. His track record of calling it right and "passing go" have resulted in more and more power and influence in his hands, and that power is tremendous. I believe that this fact, together with the confidence the business world, domestic markets and international markets have in him, serves as a modifying influence that calms and flattens the oscillations in the markets. We all get upset when he rains on our parade with his "irrational exhuberance" remarks, but we are all happy when he moves to intervene and derail crisis that could send the markets into a tailspin. The phrase "don't fight the fed" is synonomous with "don't fight the fed chairman." He has the strings of the most powerful economy in the world and his reach extends worldwide. An external event could cause a recession. I don't see anything lurking on the near horizon except possibly one. The real danger could be from a possible oil shock as a result of a war or escalating long term political crisis. I don't see a political crisis which leaves this country impotent. I don't see a collapse of international trade laws or trade barriers coming up. I don't see the technology revolution ending soon and I do see the standard of living and third world consumption rising in the next years. Even though I don't see a recession in the front mirror, I am not invested for the medium or long run at this time, except in oils. I have made most of my money in tech, even with the dropping nas. I still have more money in tech than in oils, but the ratio is closer than it has ever been and for the first time I actually have about 15% of my portfolio in cash as opposed to being fully margined. The balance I have chosen between tech and oils is to invest primarily in keg and drillers with the rest in beaten up tech stocks. My beaten up tech stocks are all small cap, all with a great story or great fundamentals and all in sectors with real promise. I also have some investments in biotechs. I think the market has room to drop and I am watching it for any sign of a real panic. If it doesn't drop hard, I see a halfhearted rally in the general mrkt which can give some good gains, but I don't see any catalyst that can drive the market to new highs soon. the only kicker is momentum itself which may kick in if a lot of mutual fund money starts chasing those same old large cap tech stocks again. I keep telling myself to pull out and wait for a real drop which seems to always come, but here I am still playing in the street. I am udoubtedly wrong and if you knew me like I do you would pay absolutely no attention to anything in this post. Ed