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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (79172)	11/16/2000 8:22:41 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 95453

Cinderella Ed, While, like you, I fail to see any cataclysmic collapse, I would differ on the subject of recession. I see either a very mild or a mild recession, that is, two consecutive quarters of decreases in GDP, sometime in the next 2 years. I think your faith in AG and the power of the Fed is misplaced, though. At certain points in an economic expansion the Fed finds itself much less powerful to affect an economy; I believe we're at one of those points now. I won't even get into whether or not the government figures would truly reveal it if we had an "R." But it might not take a textbook recession to feel like one. If GDP growth were to drop to close to flat from its current rather torrid rate, I believe it would feel very much like a recession. And to do so, certain sectors would, probably collapse quite painfully. Further, even if all the components of GDP were still registering positive but slow growth, the market looks forward and investors could really suffer, even if we managed the soft landing. I don't think this will format very well, but it has real GDP growth rate numbers in fixed dollars for the past couple of years, link below: Year $billions % change % change from last from last data period AR year 1998 0198429.5 07.125% 05.162% 1998 02/8495.8 03.183% 04.433% 1998 03r8587.6 04.393% 04.411% 1998 04;8726.1 06.609% 05.315% 1999 0198815.6 04.166% 04.580% 1999 02n8889.2 03.382% 04.631% 1999 03)9042.2 07.065% 05.294% 1999 04-9238.2 08.956% 05.869% 2000 01B9381.9 06.369% 06.424% 2000 02m9543.0 07.047% 07.355% 2000 03Q9650.6 04.587% 06.728% economagic.com

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (79172)	11/16/2000 10:17:01 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

cnyndwllr - re: recession ? It's amazing that most Techie's don't even acknowledge that they are in a Bear Market yet for the NASDQ & I'd imagine a recession will arrive the same way - into the face of denial, supported clearly by numerous indicators & economic stats; but ignored, spun and continually denied by many as just a temporary contraction in a bigger expansion. How about a credit tapped-out consumer who has a "negative" savings rate; coupled with falling US Corportate earnings & shareprices that traditionally leads to cutbacks, layoff's etc - usually starting in the auto industry; which we are seeing presently. Let the Auto slow down work its way thru the system - don't 1 out of 7 jobs in the US "still" have a direct, or closely related connection to the Auto Industry ? The costs & inflationary aspects of $30 Oil were never acknowledged; let alone "pro-longed" $35ish Oil... inflation leads to slow downs & we've seen more than a few Oil Shock Recessions unfold - denial, or not...Oil slowly & steadilly works its way all thru the system and it's affects here most assuredly will be of the "slowing" varietal... Concerning that "Full Employment & business is good" - yes; with WalMart employing 2 Million people at $7 an hour - we do have "Full Employment"... add Mc Donalds etc and you'll get a picture of what "full employment" in America means... it used to mean making $26 Hr all those factories billowing smoke skyward in America's rustbelt with vibrant inner city working communities bustling with families, growth & activity - but; no more .... now; it means decay, rust and handing out shopping carts at Wal Mart...Let Wal Mart & the retailers have a soft Xmas season; which they will & then watch the cutbacks & layoffs...albeit in the $7 Hr job variety; but we'll get the pullback in the employment numbers. We've had a "bubble" in many ways - consumer spending was credit expansion led and it will be credit collapse ended. An obvious significant portion of our economy is consumer spending led and unfortunately; much of this latest expansion was credit created & funded. Shareprices reflected the reckless liquidity & money pump of Rubin & Greenspan and now we're slowly seeing the collapse of complete industries & subsectors - Telcom, all the .com iNets etc. BioTech is beginning to crack; still lots of smoke & mirrors to go here - KREM at a PE of 100 etc... all mania's eventually "over-swing" to the other direction and even if the market does not "over-swing" but; merely returns to even historic valuation multiples of this decade long bull; the downside is still substantial. Concerning where the world is one big economy - where one small part may falter etc.... unfortunately; fairly big parts and a lot of parts have faltered and we've bailed out so many to such a degree - that we've created the most complex & levered series of financial instruments that the markets have ever seen. We have Major US Banks that have derivative exposure that are now "multiples" of their capitalization - that is sheer insantity. It is beyond belief that US Banks were allowed to do this... there are signs all over the world - Argentine Bonds etc that another crisis is brewing. The King Dollar is creating stress fractures through other Global Economies & Currencies. Greenspan just got through rushing new Bank Failure reform thru and has been warning about the Fed's inability to orchestrate another LTC type bailout - and now US Banks are looking like LTC's ?!? This continual stabilization & bail out of the markets and foreign countries & currencies; which is intervention - which requires manipulation; is not without cost, or risk and an eventual price to pay. It eventually creates a house of cards that hopefully gets passed on to the next administration etc. Rubin got while the getting was good; there is as much political, military & economic risk as any time in recent history in the World. $35 Oil with Mid East unrest and potentially the son of the American President that stomped out Saddam during the Gulf War; now coming into office with Saddam at the wheel as the "real" swing producer - controlling global crude prices into a slowing US Economy that can not take any more stress. Japan still has major problems, Russia - who knows what's even left for the Bureaucrats of the new Administration to steal, or sell there ? Euorpe is struggling with the Euro and is probably the safe haven market & currencywise; but is not without their fundamental social & business culture problems. Other parts of Asia & South America are teetering very dangerously, Africa is still in turmoil and Gold Prices being supressed hurts the mining industry that dominates parts of the continent. Cyyndwllr; kind of rose colored glasses there imo... no; the sky is not falling & the end of the world is not near; but we got so irrational and have become so manipulated & levered; that even small stumbles by a minor player can lead to a domino effect of yet to be seen proportions. LTC came out of the blue; so did Russia, so did many prior market events. We now have more catalysts than ever before and above all - the mutual unsustainability of our account deficit & the Hyper-Strong US Dollar that require the full faith & confidence of foreign investment to keep the bubble propped up; that should sober even the most irrationally exhuberant into the face of this less than gracefull transfer of power... In a nutshell; marketwide - the "Big & Easy" money has allready been made, be it in Tech, or the Oilpatch and obviously so... Godspeed to those who think this environment that is controlled by the latest Press Conference from either Austin, or Washington is "max margin" territory... that didn't learn from their prior lessons and the tape in both the OSX & the NAZ shows the risk vs. reward opportunities for the last 8 months or so; hasn't been real positive... Bush is about to become yet another Republican who inherits a Democratic house of cards in implosion mode... recession, inflation and deja vu all over again - here we come... We learned how to play prior Oil Shocks & Recessions and the Dollar & the US Market were not where to be long by the way... and Gold did pretty well; as did the shorts...or, those who simply cashed in all; if not most of their chips and said - thanks for the memories... game's over and waited patiently for the smoke to clear from the rubble of those who refused to heed the last call at the party of parties... Actually; the coming "relief" rally in Tech from any settlement to the Election Debacle as well as any weather related spike - especially in the Nat Gas E&P pureplays is a great shorting opp imho. I've continually said - the next "Big & Easy" money in the oilpatch is on the downside. Yes; just as in 97-98; we may get a correcton from 140 to 80; then a last up leg from 80 to 120. But, trying to squeeze out profitable trades during that 140 to 80 correction is pretty futile here; just as it was then. Certainly worth "playing" with a "few chips" - but, certainly no longer a "fully invested" environment, let alone a max margin environment - not with the NAZ & the Election news whipsawing the Oilpatch at will. I think the Oilpatch is in a volaitle trading range - unfortunately; controlled by too many external factors here and capped to the upside by overall market risk in the nearterm imho. - I think it's a long pause that "may" potentially refresh with the continuation of another upcycle leg; but only after the Oil majors see where US demand & the economy and crude prices "soft land" to in 2001 and they won't make those commitments in the first half imho... cnyndwllr - I understand your comments; your views are not irrational, just too optimistic and in this market - you'd better carry a healty bit of cynicism , skepticism and even paranoia...and the tape in both the OSX and the NAZ has told us as much for the last 8 months... Bullsky; well said -here... (Bull dont be a stranger even if you're not trading). ===================================================================To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (79049) From: BigBull Wednesday, Nov 15, 2000 6:36 PM ET Reply # of 79190 Slider - Right on! Imo folks should enjoy this patch rally to the max, but seriously consider using trailing stops. Many of the macro economic factors that attracted me to this sector in '98 are now in mirror image. One factor that is greatly disturbing to me is that this time the US may join the rest of the world speaking the forbidden "R" word: thestreet.com These are the worrisome events that caused Merrill Lynch bank analyst Judah Kraushaar today to write in a report, "Credit trends are clearly deteriorating in the banking/financial services industry in general. Non-performing assets on the commercial side bottomed about a year ago. We have now had a full year of accelerating non-performing asset growth and our sense from the banks is that this growth is continuing to accelerate. We are also seeing very wide credit spreads on non-investment grade bond issues, which we view as worrisome. Credit spreads today are as wide as they were in the fall of 1998, and we think that is very deflationary." Wow! Non-performing assets as a growth industry in the "New Economy", what a concept. Keep your eye on the ball folks. The cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. With that I say sayonara for a good long while. Banzai Bull is hangin' up his keyboard until further notice. ==================================================================== "The cure for high oil prices are high oil prices" ! - Amen brother... 1997-98 taught us many lessons - among the best; pigs get fat & hogs get slaughtered... be among the first to arrive at the party - but, never among the last to leave ~ and money management is next to godliness - ie: tight trailing stops etc is a prerequisite for survival here at this stage of the cycle & one must use them with emotionless , Puritanistic discipline. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade here - I have a few Dec-Jan calls & some April-May's; but I'm a profit taking seller on any legs to this rally and my next trade that I am laying in wait for in the Oilpatch is any speculative breakout in the Nat Gas pureplay E&P's on a Weather Event - that will be a max margin opportunity; but on the short side folks... ie: no Nat Gas "cartel" and nothing, nothing fundamentally in supply, or demand to sustain anything near the doubling, let alone tripling of the last 5 year average price for NG - NG is the .com bubble of the Oilpatch on any "further" weather spike when & if seen... a chipshot. Give me a run thru OSX 132-135 here on my calls & I'm totally out of Oils and waiting for that NG Winter blizzard spike to short...there may be a real buying opp come Feb-March - just as there was in 97-98; but it will be in the drillers & later cycle plays - the E&P story allways ends early off the peak of commodity prices & all that's left to this story is Winter Weather & potentially Saddam... I'd suggest that posters go back & study the 97-98 cycle and see what subsectors never came back to their former highs of the 1st leg and which went on to new highs after the pause that refreshed... and remember; the bottom fell out 6-9 mos before earnings peaked - and in the midst of rapid earnings acceleration & record earnings ! - they don't call if deja vu for nothing you know (VBG)~

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (79172)	11/17/2000 12:08:45 AM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 95453

Ed, That last sentence makes me think that you are from the Heartland of America. I'm holding lots of small cap tech and energy stocks, though I broke down and bought some KLIC today. I have a big position in SEMX, which along with energy stocks has done OK. Funny thing happened today. I visited a Nabors Drilling Rig. The slips were set and only the tool pusher was hanging around, no activity at all -strange. So I got out of my car and went over to talk with the tool pusher. I said "Hey- where's the drilling crew?" He said that another (nameless) drilling company came up today and hired them all away on the spot. He was hoping that they'd have a replacement crew in a few days, but he noted "The replacements keep failing the pre-employement drug tests." Ha! Lots of rigs in yards out there. But no crews to provision them. All of the veteran crews laid off in the great recession of 1997-1998 said "the hell with it" and never came back- the great limiting factor here.....