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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/16/2000 3:28:40 PM
From: c.hinton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

An ideal" money printing program "and the discovery of "universalized trading rules"would only remain valid only as long as they remained secret.The mere suspicion of their existence would alter peoples actions and reactions.

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/17/2000 1:22:51 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I liked the discussion of TA theory here yesterday. There are many theories out there and I have been trying to decide what to follow and what to ignore. Charles Dow's theories make the most sense to me, especially the part about higher highs and lows = uptrend, lower highs and lows = downtrend. I think this gives some much-needed flexibility in chart patterns, because in the real world most stocks don't go up and down in a straight line, make symmetrical double or head-and-shoulders tops and bottoms, or stop right at support/resistance points. The highs-lows trend is more flexible yet it's also more objective since it's easy to tell if one price is higher or lower than another without drawing any lines. Fun-da-Mental P.S. I've quit my job in gold exploration and gone back to school for electrical engineering in Silicon Valley. You all can take this as a contrarian signal if you want. The other day one of my profs said flash memory was going to replace the hard disk soon. Go AMD!

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/17/2000 1:27:46 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Kymar, one thing I'd add about H&S is that some people jump the gun and assume that a break down or breakout of a pattern will ensue. Edwards and MaGee talked about what maybe a 3% drop below the neckline to be valid, Now it seems that often that ammount should be extended out to 5 or 6%. But it's subject and I'm speaking anecdotally, from my perceptions. John

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/17/2000 5:58:13 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi KymarFye, Great post. Too much blind faith in these things and not enough empirical evidence. Agnostic is the best way to go here. The H & S is the most abused chart pattern there is and is often applied to time frames which in my experience have proven worthless as prognosticator of price movement. I am a believer in the pattern combined with the volume and time frame characteristics which you espouse. However, I'm on the verge of throwing out the whole concept if the following chart, which exhibits all the proper supporting traits, doesn't confirm toute de suite! stockcharts.com[L,A]DACLYIMY[DC][PB10!B20!B50!B200][VC60][IUC20!LA12,26,9!LD20!LH4,3] Cheers Shack

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/17/2000 6:50:33 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

KymarFye: Congrats, your post made the "cool posts" list on the SI home page. Regards, LG

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/18/2000 9:37:17 AM
From: TsioKawe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Great post...My take on the continued failure of rallies is that for each share anyone purchases long (especially from Margined accounts) these broker firms are shorting it 3 times over... I have placed odd sized purchases that have filled and find the same sizes coming up again, and again, and again on the asks...they also will reappear on the bid later after the stocks have tanked Intraday.... We no longer trade against one another, we trade against man made machines, the Media, and sophisicated software programs which all run automatically making big money for those who can afford to own them....These same machines are in control of the lives of everyone who have invested in any stock market the last year, and these same machines make corporate firms and rich clients even more rich, while the middle class gets evaporated into lower life forms...whos futures are no longer a dream, but a reality of debt...The future is all written in a book titled "fahrenhiet 451"..scary, but it is here and here to stay In control..IMHO So when you see MLCO, BTRD, INCA, REDI and the likes loading up a stock such as VERT on friday morning, consider it Just a way to gather stock Certificates that will be getting sold again 3 times over... My personal view is that if its legal it will be done, as far as things being Morally right, well thats an entirely different area that obviously has no weight on Walls street... I forsee Nasdaq at 2000 with this continued activity as these analysist Yadda, Yadda, this Bull not does not come, as they unload and shortsell on top of the unloads... Goodluck as always. Attiene

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/18/2000 3:35:58 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

<As to the specific question, citing a personal study of 500 5-year daily charts, as detailed in ENCYLOPEDIA OF CHART PATTERNS, Thomas Bulkowski claims that properly identified h&s patterns remain among the most reliably tradable, with very low failure rates and very high relative likelihood of reaching targets. (BTW, Bulkowski's publishers claim that he was successful enough trading his formations to "'retire' from his day job at age 36.")> would you yourself now indentify COMPX/NDX100 "as a properly identifiable H&S pattern"as it is beginning to look that way to me,if so,my "doomsdaying"prognosis of 2000 before 2002 looks quite objective.max

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/19/2000 9:44:44 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

KymarFye; I guess you know by now taht was a very good post on your part. I want to add something that may not be directly related but has to do with the Voodoo in TA. I haven't seen anyone else mention this but TA that depends on volume such as OBV is bound to produce an error in it's basic calculations if used as is across a split period without manually adjusting the trading volume data. Now most TA uses Price and Volume in one form or another, & what I've found is the data we get to plug into the charting program we use ; has the price adjusted for "splits" but not the volume I haven't yet found any of the data sources I use adjusting the volume for splits nor do I know of any canned charting programs used over the web that adjust for the pre/post split volume. Member 1421660

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/20/2000 10:41:36 AM
From: Derek DeVries	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

There is a good deal of hocus-pocus witchcraft in some of the charting systems, this included. After trading nine years I've learned one thing. Charts explain. they can't predict. They can't measure real-time liquidity in the price and that is crucial.

To: KymarFye who wrote (62647)	11/20/2000 11:54:53 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

A perfect H&S is as reliable a chart pattern as you can ever have - and it is frequently a self-fulfilling prophecy that the stock breaks the pattern to the downside because everyone in the T/A community puts on the same trade. This is the most perfect H&S I have ever seen, complete with perfect downside target objective achievement. It is one H&S that happened less than a year ago: 203.161.232.68 same chart again: chart.quam.net