To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (8938 ) 11/17/2000 1:34:42 AM From: DJBEINO Respond to of 9582 Singapore Raises GDP Forecast, Doesn't See Chip Slump 11/16/00 8:07:00 PM Source: Bloomberg News Singapore, Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore raised its forecast for economic growth this year to 9.5 percent from a previous estimate of 9 percent, dismissing the risk of a slump in demand for semiconductors and other electronic goods. Gross domestic product expanded a revised 10.4 percent in the third quarter from a year ago, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said. That's up from an initial estimate of 10.2 percent released on Oct. 10. From the second quarter, the economy grew 6.6 percent. Surging electronics exports and sales of telecommunications services at home are fueling Singapore's growth. While shipments are seen slackening across the region next year, the government is betting there's still enough demand and investment pouring in for the economy to grow at its fastest pace in six years. ''We're keeping our fingers crossed,'' said Khor Ho Ee, the top economist at the Monetary Authority of Singapore. ''We can never predict if there is going to be a sudden shock -- in which event the economy will be performing at the lower end of the range we mentioned.'' Singapore has raised this year's growth target four times from as low as 5 percent. The government didn't touch its growth estimate for next year of between 5 percent and 7 percent. Micron Tools Up Underlining the island's burgeoning semiconductor industry, Micron Technology Inc., the No. 1 U.S. maker of memory chips, said this week it will invest as much as S$500 million ($287 million) to build a new Singapore plant by January 2002, where it will test and package its chips. While most Asian countries that depend on electronics exports are vulnerable to a slowing U.S. economy, Singapore reckons it will be relatively unscathed because of its effort to woo foreign investment and develop new products. ''We decided to expand our capacity here because Singapore has proven to be the most efficient place to operate in Asia,'' said Lee Chung Chong, human resources director for Micron. ''It has good infrastructure and very efficient government.'' Micron's Singapore operation has hired 1,000 people in the past two years and now has 3,000 workers. ''Bearing in mind that the market conditions remain steady, we will hire at the same rate,'' Lee said. Rising recruitment by Micron and other companies helped slash the island's unemployment rate to 2.5 percent in September -- its lowest in two years -- from 3.5 percent in June. Road Ahead Manufacturing industries led gains among goods producers, offsetting a contraction in the construction industry. Today's report is the first to give details of how specific industries performed last quarter. The government cited concern about a possible slide in the global electronics industry, higher oil prices and ''political uncertainty'' in some parts of Southeast Asia as potential trouble spots. It's not too worried, though. ''Recent profit warnings by some electronics manufacturers have heightened concern over a downturn in the global electronics cycle,'' the ministry said. ''However, the risk of an electronics downturn remains small.'' That flies in the face of some industry rumblings. Recent profit and sales warnings from U.S. companies such as personal computer maker Apple Computer Inc. and chipmaker Intel Corp. fueled concern that sales may drop at the Asian chipmakers that supply them. Chip Shares Fall Shares of Asian chipmakers fell today as analysts' downgrades of their American peers fueled concern the industry's shares are overpriced given expectations profit growth will slow next year. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Samsung Electronics Co. and NEC Corp. all fell. Singapore's benchmark stock index lost ground led by Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd. ''In the next three to six months, ongoing downgrades in the U.S., which we are expecting, will continue to have an impact in Asia,'' said Anthony Muh, who helps manage $2 billion in Asia excluding Japan for SSB Citi Asia in Hong Kong. ''The problem with Asia is a lot of the chipmakers haven't talked about profit downgrades as yet.'' Another concern is inflation. Higher oil prices may push up consumer prices and spur demands for wage rises, the government said, without giving details. That could prompt the central bank to raise interest rates. Singapore's inflation accelerated to 1.5 percent in the third quarter from 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Manufacturing Leads Manufacturing expanded 15.5 percent the third quarter from a year ago, up from 13.3 percent the second quarter. Construction, which contributes 7.5 percent of total output, dropped 1.3 percent after shrinking 1.7 percent in the second quarter. Services industries gained 9.2 percent from a year ago. Transport and communications, which account for 11 percent of GDP, grew 9.2 percent from a year ago, following a 9.5 percent rise the previous quarter as the island state opened its telephone-services market to outside competition. Mobile phone use rose 65 percent last quarter from a year ago and international calls rose 25 percent. The government awarded 30 new phone licenses on April 1, prompting new competitors such as MCI WorldCom Inc. and Cable & Wireless Plc to spend money on facilities and marketing. Financial services, which account for 13 percent of GDP, gained 4.4 percent in the third quarter from a year ago, reversing a 1 percent decline in the preceding three months. Wholesale and retail trade, which make up 14 percent of the economy, expanded 15.2 percent from a year ago and 9.3 percent from a quarter ago. Business services grew 7.7 percent on the year.