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To: Windseye who wrote (86927)	11/17/2000 10:07:55 AM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Well, I think this is the crux of the problem. When the ballots are first counted, it is unlikely chads are falling out since the ballot is "fresh" and the perforations are still relatively firm, except in cases where they've been punched. After a second machine count, this becomes less so. As a hand count begins, manual manipulation adds even more stress to the cards. All machine counts are generally felt to be accurate from 99% to 99.99%. In Florida, this represents a difference, potentially, of 34,500 to 345 votes. In either case, enough to make up the 300 vote differential. In all likelihood, however, the non-voted ballots in a state split 50/50 is still going to probably fall out 50/50 in a hand count UNLESS the hand count is performed in counties that have HUGE differentials (like the 4 in question) between the candidates. The second issue of the hand count is really one which ultimately led to machine counts to begin with - the ability for manipulation and misinterpretation. The lost percentage of ballots in a machine count is roughly equivalent to or less than that of ballots that would be lost in a hand count (human error is usually much larger unless a machine is poorly designed - entirely probable in Florida...LOL). I still think the hand count has to occur, because BY LAW, it was requested and must be adhered to. That doesn't mean it's going to be a more accurate vote. If there is a tremendous statistical swing (what Gore is hoping for and I'm doubtful he'll get based on preliminary counts), then Bush really has ammunition to request hand counts across the state, since inaccurate counts in several heavily Democratic counties SHOULDN'T swing the election. This is going to go on for a LONNNNNGGGGG TIME.