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To: GVTucker who wrote (43590)	11/17/2000 1:28:59 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

OT Short-term, I think you're right...Chavez made some decisions a year ago (ie. capping production), which are bearing fruit now...BUT if Chavez would soon decide to bring capacity back on line (for several months from now), the oil market $ per barrel, I think, would reflect that well in advance of the actual production increases.. I do know that Venezuela has a ton of oil, and that they are able to produce a lot more than current. How long it takes to get those wells on-line, I'm unsure...

To: GVTucker who wrote (43590)	11/18/2000 9:49:14 AM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

The problem is with refining capacity, not with getting oil out of the ground. The refiners are going at full tilt and canot keep up with demand now, just wait till January. The refiners have been doing just in time inventory control, so there is no slack in the refining equation. The big upswing in consumption the last couple of yrs caught the refiners somewhat offguard imo. There is actually not a oil shortage upstream of the refiners though. OPEC is not the issue.