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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (79420)	11/18/2000 12:13:02 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

97-98 cycle indicators.... I mentioned the tubulars earlier; on how once they turned; they never came back. check out UTI & PTEN and how they performed in the 97-98 cycle. They too crested in OCt 97; but look how far they fell during the "pause that refreshed"... PTEN from $30 to $10 - then bounced to $15ish - then collapsed. UTI from a split adjusted $25ish to $7 then a bounce to $10 and collapsed. Using these early cycle subsectors as indicators is nothing to ignore here... Many of these subsector indicators are showing all the signs of the top in shareprices allready having come & gone for the OSX... I know - everyone is going to say - how, how can it be given the earnings forecasts and commodity prices. Simply go back to 97-98 and look at where in the earnings cycle these stock's peaked sharepricewise in the prior cycle and how individual subsectors played out. The Peak in sharprices came very, very early - well, well before those peak earnings were ever reached. Looks like Deja Vu all over again to me from virtually every angle and a slowdown in the US Economy in 2001 is a nail in the coffin. The only question to ask as to if the OSX has new highs remaining; is if the US is going into a recession, mild or not in 2001; if it is - game, set & match - you've got a potential Winter Weather Spike & then lights out... The XOI formed a double top in 97 & 98 and has just formed another in 99 & 2000... watching the XOI here will be key. VLO a refiner just sold off hard on great earnings as well. Upside earnings remaining here to peak cycle do not matter people & that will be the single biggest mistake people will make in failing to exit here;. Focusing on the still great fundamental upside... Exiting a cyclical sector anywhere near the top; requires one to exit well, well, in adavance of the peak of the cycle earnings-wise even appearing on the horizon - just as it did in 97-98. I am beginning to think that horizon appeared a while back & we may not be "coming back"... Again; I hope there is some substantial upside to the NG plays; but not for the upside; but rather for shorting on the downside. - I actually think there is more risk piling into them here - and then not having any weather related spike occur; than there is in waiting to see if they do spike on some weather event & then shorting them for a leg down. Then the next opp comes in Feb-March as we see where NG & Oil prices settle in and how the US Economy soft lands. If there is a substantial new upside leg left in this cycle; it "aint" launching anytime soon imo.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (79420)	11/18/2000 7:46:16 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 95453

Great stuff K.B./eom

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (79420)	11/18/2000 11:43:53 PM
From: JungleInvestor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thank you for the wonderfully thought-out post, Kodiak! My hope is that the U.S. Supreme Court will decide to hear this case and make a decision that will preserve the integrity of the election process. You believe, however, that they will probably not hear it. Assume that the Florida Supreme Court does decide that Harris must include the manual recount in the certified tally. Question: would the growing evidence of fraud and manipulation in these manual recounts influence the U.S. Supreme Court to hear the case?