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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (856)	11/22/2000 9:14:40 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

"History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes" I like that. Thanks Jay!! But I just wanted to clarify my point a bit. The dollar is strong against it's competing currencies for a reason, namely the inherent weakness of their macro-economic structure and future social liabilities. All of these should continue to disfavor their achieving an economic growth that exceeds the US. So while the US may slow, so will growth in both of those economies since exports will decline. One more point... I agree that surpluses may not be as strong as projected next year, but in my conversations (including one congressman while we were both having lunch), the $200 billion/year surplus is based upon a growth rate of 3%, a slower rate of growth below where we have been for the past year. So having that extra cash available, and the political will to buy out the publicly held national debt, that should provide additional support to the US dollar. In effect, investors may feel reassured that there exists a "guaranteed buyer" for their treasury notes. And given the size of that market and the generous yields, it should be enough to convince them to stay here. Especially when compared to Japan and Europe where deficit spending will likely accelerate to meet social entitlements. Right now, the US is only buying back something like $30 billion of the national debt per year and an estimated $40 Billion this year. The rest is being parked in short-term govt paper for the most part (thus ironically increasing the national debt). So the Treasury can sell short term paper to the tune of $190 Billion and buy back long term T-Bills, or vice versa. Now personally, I think that surplus would be better spent enabling people to build their own private retirement accounts, but suffice it to say, that without an extreme growth in government, the surpluses should continue to run and support the government debt markets, and by default, the US dollar. Ok... take aim and fire away... I always invite everyone to logically punch holes in my theories. Call it "peer review"... <VBG> Regards, Ron

To: TobagoJack who wrote (856)	11/22/2000 10:15:31 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Lots of things to think about in your post--thanks. RE: store of value as oil field. What do you have in mind? I have been heavily into oil royalty trusts myself, but they are a depleting asset, and when mine rose to very high levels, I sold some. BPT, Prudhope Bay RT, for example, owns royalties on the first 90,000 barrels per day extracted from that field, but it is hard for an outsider to judge how long the field will go on producing. Also, costs rise constantly --and of course the whole thing is subjectto fluctucating oil prices. How would you "buy an oil field"?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (856)	11/22/2000 5:55:46 PM
From: Dan Spillane	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Where do people like you hang out when the market is over-valued--instead of under-valued, as is currently the case? You wrote a very nice rear-view mirror piece...dime a dozen.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (856)	11/25/2000 2:19:19 PM
From: denizen48	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Your logic seems far-fetched to me. Your math is questionable. The connections you make between "everymen", the "typical off-shore investor", and the general world condition are not very obvious to me. Your view of things is too grandiouse to fit into a few paragraphs. So why try, why yell FIRE in a crowded theater? And common sense would tell me there is not much security on a Phillippine private island, unless you maintain your own army.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (856)	11/25/2000 4:13:12 PM
From: Derek DeVries	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Dear Jay, Your post is somewhat esoteric in relation to an american investor like myself. I live in SO CAL and while certainly nobody is laughing, the difference you fail to comprehend is that now there is more dot.com money floating around than in the past. In CASH, not options. Don't forget corruption and mis-management of the World Bank giveaways to ruthless dictators who deposited the money in, you guessed it, America. Where do you live, in a refrigerator box???

To: TobagoJack who wrote (856)	7/22/2003 10:15:31 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Ron, have you seen this movie agencyfaqs.com <<The Beast of War: A Soviet tank cut off from its column, Afghan rebels bent on revenge, and brute force fills the screen with blockbuster action! This "fast, authentic, exciting" drama (New York Newsday) puts you in the turret of a hell-bent Russian tank known as "The Beast" fighting for its survival and behind the gunsights of the guerrillas sworn to destroy it>> I am watching it right now, it is very well made and super intense, and one of the Russian soldiers just said "I hate this country", a phrase recently spotted on the BBC news site. I recommend the movie for its dramatic description of Afghanistan-Russian conflict at the ground level, and the psychology of the participants. May be thought provoking for the folks on the Foreign Affair's thread. Chugs, Jay