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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4899)	11/23/2000 11:46:02 AM
From: arun gera	Respond to of 197003

Maurice: Definitely, sending pictures with emails is going to be among the top 3 applications for 3G. My brother recently bought a Handspring Visor with a webcam attachment. Taking pictures is so easy. You can see the picture on the Visor itself and save it with a couple of clicks. Add high bandwidth wireless connection and you can transfer the image to your host server or email to a friend. Characteristics of a killer app - it should require few steps, and it should appeal to a strong human urge. Photos are like that. And a picture is worth a thousand words. Email is already a killer app. Camera ownership or use has a very high market penetration today. Combine cell phone with a camera and there is high probability of acceptance. One can always have more specific applications. Downloading maps with real time traffic information can be a good consumer app. Scanning and faxing documents to and from the road is a big business application, may require a PC, a handheld may not be able to do it. Arun

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4899)	11/23/2000 12:26:25 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 197003

Forget all this 2.5G, 3G, 1x, GPRS stuff for a minute and think about the logical progression of wireless communications in simple English. I read in an article (forgot where so I can't link nor give proper credit) that identified very clearly 5 areas: increased processing power, improved connectivity, more applications, better audio and better video. This is identical to the Wintel evolution, governed by Moore's law. Processing power, applications, audio and video are all device/technology based. They will most like improve over time and limited only by innovation. These are the areas where QCOM, PALM, handset makers will excel in. The lone difference between the wireless vs wintel evolution: connectivity. Wireless connectivity is limited by spectrum. While QC can continue to figure out how to best utilize them, the spectrums are of finite width. More importantly, they are of finite value. A few years ago, some of us may remember the C block auctions. Wasn't the per pop price of the winners around or less than $50/pop? The price was so outrageous that in the end, I am not sure if any of the successful bidders survived. UK and Germany took the lead and extorted over $500/pop for their licenses. We have to ask ourselves are the spectrums that much more valuable to the carriers? Months ago, I opined that these auctions are taxes in disguise and will kill progress. I think it is more true today than ever. As an investor, I care about cdma2000, wcdma, HDR, etc etc. As a consumer, all I want is fast, cheap, user friendly wireless voice and data connection using clever devices. But how much am I willing to pay? Today, for my 2 person household, we are connected to the world via 2 land lines, 2 wireless line, cable TV and cable Internet with 2 IPs. This "connectivity package" costs about $100-$150 per month. Of this package, the only component that may be obsolete in the near future may be the land line(s). I do not see watching TV on my wireless handset nor surfing the internet at cable speed via wireless in at least 3+ years. With brutal competition, it is unlikely that I will be paying more for this bundle of service in the future, in fact, most likely less. With 3G, the major difference is wireless data. How much more would I pay for the convenience of wireless data, knowing full well that the speed and quality would not be remotely comparable to cable speed and my two flat panels at home? At least for the beginning, wireless data is going to be an additional cost to my existing bundle, not a replacement. This will limit my willingness to pay extra for this wireless feature. Evidenced by G*, consumers are unwilling to pay the price for the global feature even though many may want a phone that works anywhere on earth (theoratical). Even DSL lines are not as popular as expected, with consumers not willing to pay the extra bucks and staying with cheap 56k connection speed or slower. That is why I think the carriers' business models for 3G is seriously flawed. From a business strategy perspective, I think Sprint and VZ should bid like crazy to jack up the price of the spectrum and then withdraw from the upcoming auctions. This will force the desperate carriers such as Nextel and T to pay outrageous price for the 3G spectrums. Timing is then perfect for Sprint and VZ to launch 1X and a price war, thereby crippling the ability for the successful bidders to raise any capital to pay for the 3G built out. It is becoming more apparent that 1x and 1xEV may be the most logical path to 3G. The cdmaOne carriers are going to be at a tremendous advantage. The carriers who stubbornly stick to dead end technologies may in a few years be following the footsteps of Xerox. Ramsey

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4899)	11/23/2000 3:00:54 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 197003

Young people love SMS because it's cheap. They will not send pictures with their messages when they find out the price they have to pay to do so, especially when they compare the quality and price of those pictures to the quality and price they pay to send them on their home PC -- excellent quality, zero price. They will not download audio and video to their wireless handset for the same reason. Nor will anybody else. The foolish providers that paid billions for 3G spectrum will soon regret it -- actually the process of regret has already started. 3G will take off when: 1. The display and audio quality on the handset is comparable to that on the home PC. 2. The price of such downloads is comparable to that on the home PC. Otherwise, people will simply wait to get home before doing those high data rate downloads. Just like they wait to get into cell phone range to do their phoning, instead of using Globalstar.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4899)	12/1/2000 3:47:38 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 197003

Re: Verizon 2 Way SMS RCR December 1, 2000 I told you we were getting civilized over here. <g> >> Verizon Rolls Out Mobile Messaging In L.A. Verizon Wireless reported it will roll out mobile messaging services to its customers in the Los Angeles area this week, with plans for nationwide availability by early next year. Verizon said the mobile messaging service, similar to short message service, which has proven to be extremely popular in Europe, is designed to allow customers two choices in how they use their phones to communicate: talk and text. Each text message sent or received can contain up to 120 characters. Customers interested in the service have three options to choose from. First, a simple pay-as-you-go option for those who do not want to commit to any pre-set services. Verizon said those who choose this option do not have to subscribe to the service if they already own an SMS-capable Verizon phone. For customers interested in heavy usage, Verizon offers a package of 100 sent or received SMS messages for $3 and a package offering 600 sent or received messages for $8. Additional sent messages are billed at 10 cents each, with received messages charged at 2 cents each. To introduce the service, Verizon said it will waive the messaging fee and per message fees until March 1, and offer an SMS-enabled Kyocera 2035A handset for $70. << - Eric -