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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shaw who wrote (1107)	11/23/2000 10:08:19 AM
From: robert duke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

Hey we agree. It's just that right now a pe compression is going on. Stocks like rfmd pmcs brcd brcm which will all be added to my portfolio are all compression. Rfmd went form 90 to 15 and will hit 15 again within a year. The pe is way to high. pmcs was at like 250 and is now at 108. When we get a rally these stock will move higher but will not recover all of that loss. Then feb will come around. Maybe march and those stock will continue the down trend. I will be buying those stocks when they hit bottom. In 1990 we had a recession. MSFT intel, csco, ibm, all of those stocks had the biggest run up after 1991. Before 1991 they were growing and developing. But it's after the bear down trend and or the recession that you want to buy those companies again. The average joe will have been scared away. A family member of mine works for mci and she says that her friends at the company are all worried that the stock will drop lower. This is a sign that we are half way to the bottom of the barrel. We need those people to sell what they have. Then we will buy like mad dogs. On this next run which should last 8 years or so like the last one, I will be able to retire at the end of it. at the age of 37.

To: Shaw who wrote (1107)	11/23/2000 1:07:38 PM
From: mact	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2293

shaw, the current mkt is not rational...wasnt rational when nazzy went from 2700 to 5000 in 4 months and not rational now...i appreciate ur ability to think of the big picture, but right now people are too scared to think, they just react to any news as being negative...when the elections are over, we should see a relief rally but imo there is no way we will see a run anything close to last yr...the mkt is not tanking because of the elections, it is because corporate revenue and earnings growth is slowing...while the economy is still expanding, it is doing so at a lower rate and this mkt. had priced in perfection for all sectors...the mkt. is overshooting the downside right now but this should level out this winter...the current fear is perpetuated by the fact that over 50% of the population own stocks in some way and when they see there ira's down 35% in a 3 month span, it is quite alarming...one thing we need to keep in mind, sonet and legacy equipment is being phased out as we speak and we must be in co's that produce only newer generation optical equipment cause the growth will not slow there for several more yrs imo...co's like csco and nt are vulnerable...i'm watching a few co's myself: relatively speaking<ggg>, for the conservative: 1. jdsu-for active and passive parts, everyone has to go through them...they are the new csco imo 2. glw-they own the fiber mkt. and expanding into parts mkt also...a blue chip fiber co. if one exists at all 3. ala-while they are exposed to legacy equipment slowdown, they are well positioned for the next upcoming battlefield, the submarine fiber mkt. for the slight risk takers: 1. cien-they are taking mkt share from nt...they do not have legacy slowdown exposure...currently shipping optical switch and very good dwdm products. 2. jnpr-taking mkt share from csco, their technology somewhat risky, as telco's want a pure optical switch soon(pure optical switch shouldnt have limits such as terabits/s or petabits/s, as they only redirect data), but they have the mkt cap. to buy co's with upcoming technology 3. scmr-good equipment, rev growth good, slowdown not likely to affect them much for awhile 4. rbak-a new mkt leader, a co. to watch as they do not much ilec exposure and the way the stock trades, will be one of the first to move when mkt recovers. for the speculators: 1. avnx-excellent technology, has gilders blessing, will be the first to ship 1000 channel system(not sure when though), i really like their powermux and powershaper products...they have simon cao who helped found etek. 2. mrvc-optical incubator...just spunout lmne(active/passive optical equipment) and their stake in this co. almost matches their entire mkt. cap...they will spin opxs in jan, and this co. has huge potential(analogous to terabeam and airfiber---will try to solve the lastmile prob's via wireless optics)...will file to spin zaffire(metro optical gear) and charlottes networks soon(terabit routing)...when all these spinouts occur, their stake in these co's will be at least 3X mrvc's mkt cap imo. 3. bkhm/lumm--imo, the future will be with photonic chips...most active and passive equipment made by hand now, in the future, we will need automation and mass production capabilities...the price of gear will come down, but one co. will be the next intel of fiber optics. 4. others include nufo, onis, corv and the systems testers like tlgd, newp, exfo, xxia. these are all my worthless opinions but hope it gives some insight. mact