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To: Buckwheat who wrote (20408)	11/24/2000 3:48:05 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Buck, Re: The Register reports 2M Athlons shipped out of Dresden thus far (cumulative). That seems rather low to me. OTOH AMD said only three weeks ago (see www1.amd.com that it shipped 1 million Gighertz CPUs from Dresden so far. Since almost all output from Dresden is in the Gigahertz Range (I think Jerry said 90%) this means that in the last three weeks several hundred thousands Athlons were shipped. Andreas

To: Buckwheat who wrote (20408)	11/24/2000 4:37:05 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Buckwheat: Seems to me that Dresden capacity assuming current wafer size was in the range of 2.5 to 3 million microprocessors/month...That they've shipped 1 million since September would indicate an average Dresden utilization rate slightly above 20% in this period...Assuming an increment in ramping since Sept, one assumes current rate could today be around 25%...That cumulative shipments out of Dresden have doubled in this time frame suggests that Dresden ramp is in an accelerating phase...Extrapolating, one might conclude that by December 31, an additional 1 million to 2 million will have been shipped will have been shipped, or for the sake of argument, conservatively 2 million Dresden Athlons will be shipped in Q4, which combined with 6 million microprocessors out of fab 25 results in a conservative estimate of 8 million for Q4, 25% of which are at 1 gig or better...If the foregoing overview resembles reality in any way (as it's only conjecture at this point on my part), Q4 ASP's could be in for a significant boost up from $90 resulting in a 5th record (possibility significantly so) revenues and earnings quarter...

To: Buckwheat who wrote (20408)	11/24/2000 8:41:41 PM
From: Michael Ohlendorf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I actually thought they shipped more than 2Mio Athlons from Dresden since June. Will be hard for them to reach their goal of 8-9Mio CPUs sold in Q4 IMO. ~2Mio K6 ~3Mio Duron ~3Mio Athlon That means that Athlon is still only 1/3 of the mix. They could have sold many more Athlons than they were able to produce. They are probably not selling all of their Durons due to lack of cheap Mobos. Athlon production in Austin will come to an end in Q1. Looks like their mix is still working against their ASP. An upside could be the mobiles in Q1 if it is Q1 like they still claim...