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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (119165)	11/25/2000 12:09:58 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: Blow Hard Boy makes another BONE HEAD CALL. I'm not surprised you're getting hysterical over the news recently posted. Who could blame you? Buried in the details of those recent press releases were some rather stunning tidbits, and I suspect you picked up on them. Dresden was running at about 20% of capacity (1200 WSPW) for the period in which they produced 250 Athlons / week. The maximum number of 120mm2 die that could come off each 200mm wafer is about 235. But AMD got 250,000 per week instead of the theoretical max of 282,000. So it looks like AMD's yields of processors, with 80% binning at 1GHZ or higher, is about 83%. That must be kind of terrifying for Intel, trying to get their first copper FAB line going next year at the same time they absolutely must move to .13 It also means that by the end of next year, when Dresden is fully ramped, AMD will be able to get 16 million CPUs per quarter from Dresden, at 120mm2. But, of course, there will be some new layouts during the year that will reduce die size, and .13 is coming. But some of the chips at Dresden will be dual core or large cache, so the total rate will probably not grow too much. And don't forget that Austin will still crank out about 6 million or so Durons each quarter. So AMD will be at a run rate of 20 to 25 million CPUs in Q4 of next year - with total demand expected at about 60 million for the quarter. With almost all Durons already capable of 900MHZ now, and the old core Dresden Athlons already almost all GHZ+ chips, AMD will be able to sell every one of those chips against what will still be mostly .18 coppermines from Intel next year. That's a 40% market share. And the only thing Intel has that can begin to compete with Athlon is P4. Which will just be entering high volume production in Q4 of next year and that can happen only if every aspect of the move to coppper and .13 goes just right. If Intel shifts everything over to the P4 on its existing lines, it would be hard pressed to produce even 20 million chips / quarter total due to the large die size at .18 - even with all its FABs. So, it's OK, I understand why you're so hysterical and nasty. Who could blame you when your beloved Intel has been backed into such a corner. Dan