[ot]. Bosco,
VERY VERY LONG AND RAMBLING. WARNING.
I think there have been many posts on this topic, and yours are certainly one of the more moderate ones. Now that it has entered a slightly different stage. Presumably Dec12th is the drop dead date (though others may argue differently), I wonder if there is enough time for the final winner to work on the budget that is supposedly due 2wks(?) after swearing in.... Certainly doesn't look like it.
If I may be so presumptious, I wonder if I could summarize the entire series of events in simple terms, political naive creatures like me can understand.
First of all, I think it is fair to say that if the tables were turned, I have no doubt they would both do roughly the same things.
1. Bush initially wins Florida by a razor thin margin, hence supposedly winning the electoral college.
2. Gore wins popular vote. Bill Daley says they won because Gore won the popular vote and a proper recount of Florida will show that.
3. Allegations of butterfly ballots surface indicating irregularities in West Palm Beach that robbed Gore of a victory. Lawsuits filed in West Palm Beach asking for a revote. Claims go as high as 3000 votes robbed from Gore. Affidavits from people who claimed to have voted for Buchanan by mistake start showing up in a very well planned and executed PR releases from unknown sources.
4. Gore's team hits Florida and takes control of the entire recount situation. Picking Broward, Miami Dade, West Palm Beach as the three counties out of 67 that they will target for recount. Bush's team looks weak in comparison, or were caught napping. The only message that got out was Gore's : 'every vote' must count, and the laws governing counting of the sliding scale of chads, voter intent, etc was not very consistent and open to interpretation. Bush believed he won and should not have to deal with this. A recount for him would have at best confirmed he won, and at worst will indicate he lost. Why should he want a recount?
5. Automatic Machine recount started in Florida statewide, starts, yielding Bush a narrow 300 vote+ 'victory'. Florida's Secretary Harris demonized and accused of partisanship for wanting to stick to the strictest interpretation of the election law in florida.
6. Gore's team asserts the 'every vote must be counted' message while quietly concentrating all their efforts at the 3 most populous counties where they were ahead, relying on (at the very least) statistical rules to give them the vote required to pull them ahead. Bush's team still half-asleep, their legal counsel on CNN looked like a stiff lawyer. Rumblings of why the recount are concentrated in 3 counties instead of all 67 start to emerge. (Don't remember who said it first. Some GOP senator? congressman? reporter?). Gore preempts this talk by a brilliant offer to manually recount ALL of Florida. Bush rejects the offer saying he won on election night, a machine recount shows he won, and manual recounts means changing the legal rules in the middle of the game. Court battles everywhere you look. By this stage, for whatever reasons, counting ALL votes really became associated with counting all machine rejected votes in those three counties. Noone from the Bush camp pointed this out anymore --- they already rejected a statewide recount, so they are basically digging in their heels, trying to discredit the entire process of recounting 3 counties out of 67 as unfair.
7. CNN pointed out 2 years ago, Bush signs law in Florida to accept dimpled ballots as valid sign of voter intent. Bush supporter indicates this is irrelevant as Florida's law does not recognize dimpled ballots, and the voter who knows that he HAS to punch the chad through will take that into consideration. Gore supporter claims hypocrisy as Bush's own state already recognizes dimpled ballots, so why should the same rules apply, the law also should be interpreted by the supreme court.
8. Allegations of someone (a GOP supporter) helping fill in applications for ballots from 4700 people who did not fill in their ballot applications properly. Apparently, missing ballot applications means they would not have got a ballot and would not be able to vote on election day. Allegation : at least some of these people voted, and at most or all are GOP supporters since the county is a heavy GOP supporter. Someone files to challenge those ballot applications --- it is apparently hard to figure out how many of those 4700 incomplete applicants actually voted, but who knows? Manual recounts proceed, Secretary Harris not allowed to certify results pending florida supreme court ruling.
9. Court battles galore. Absentee ballots show up pulling Bush ahead further. Someone(s) unknown (a DEM?) pulled a tactical plan to eliminate as many absentee ballots (predominantly from overseas military) as possible believing (correctly it turns out by 2:1) that these were mostly Bush votes. Bush supporters start to finally make some sense and wake up.
10. By now, the voter intent counting will include not only hanging chads, swinging door chads, pregnant chads, but apparently also dimpled chads where there was a bump, but no punchthrough or hole. Dexter Douglass (responsible for appointing 5 of the sitting judges, while special counsel to Gov Chiles), stands up in court to introduce David Boeis, counsel for Gore. Supreme Court asks manual recount to proceed and gives Sunday, Nov 26, 5pm (if Harris's office is open sunday) or Nov27 9am (if closed on sunday) deadline. Harris picks Sun 5pm deadline.
11. Interesting theories started to be discussed why Gore's supporters have weaker wrists and hence were statistically more prone to be unable to punch chads through --- these chads were really tough on some ballots and for some statistical anomalies, Gore supporters are more likely to get the tough chad ballots than Bush supporters. The scope of discussion is still limited to only these 3 counties. Statistical distribution of 'uncounted votes' as compared to current machine count distribution was never discussed. By now, the most of the other 64 counties don't even exist in florida, except for the Seminole county story where the alleged improper ballot applications were revealed, and a handful of absentee ballot counties.
12. Miami Dade claims they will not be able to finish by deadline and stops recount. Gore files suit to force Miami Dade to continue recount and asks for extension of deadline. Florida supreme court refuses to grant the extension. It is now 17 days after the election night.
13. West Palm beach did not finish recount. Asks for extension. Harris rejected. They faxed two counts --- earlier machine count and later partially complete manual hand count. Harris rejects partial count and picks complete machine count. 'Final' count shows Bush 'Won' by 500+ votes ignoring absentee military ballots under dispute, butterfly ballots, the improper ballot applications, no manual recount from Miami Dade or West Palm Beach. Bush claims victory and wants to 'heal' the nation. Appoints Dick Cheney to approach Clinton Administration to prepare for a transition of power. Lieberman repeats 'every vote must count' message and vows to fight on.
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Here's what I really think.
1. I wished all Florida states were counted. Since many people believed hand counting is more reliable, that would have been good too. If either of the men were truly working for the good of his country he would have demanded a state-wide recount. Gore could have done it from the beginning instead of just offering it and he would have REALLY earned my respect. Bush could have done it and REALLY REALLY earned my respect (in light of he has more to lose). But that is now all past.
2. I know why Bush does not want hand counting. He was ahead, believes he has won, so why should he risk losing it? By limiting the manual recount to the 3 heavy DEM counties, he immediately destroys the legitimacy of the recount process anyway. He also has the ability to later ask for a full statewide recount if he were to fall behind in the 3 counties (as long as it is not too late). This basically shows the political brinksmanship of Bush, it is not a pretty picture, but men in power seldom are 'nice' people.
3. I know why Gore offers to allow Bush to ask for statewide recount. He looks conciliatory and he knows Bush will reject it. Or perhaps he really believes that his supporters Florida wide, have weaker wrists, who knows?
3. I know why Gore only offered to have Bush ask for statewide recount and not to ask for the recount himself. He has a better chance of winning with counting only counties where he is ahead. If his voters' wrist were statistically not weaker than Bush, or if his voters' were not subject to a statistical anomaly of attracting the strong unpunchable chads, he has a much lower chance of coming ahead. This basically shows the political brinksmanship of Gore, it is not a pretty picture, but men in power seldom are 'nice' people.
4. I wonder if Secretary Harris was acting from partisanship concerns or purely altruistic respect of the process. Part of me wants to believe that she knows there is a legal recourse under Florida Law to contest the certified election results and that she wishes to certify them as early as possible (7 days after the election?) to allow the legal challenges to start early and not risk jeopardizing a proper transition. Another part of me believes that she acted out of a bias towards her party.
5. I believe the Florida Supreme court will largely act out of their own altruistic motive to do the right thing for the country. But Dexter Douglass' strategic role in the 1st hearing jarred me and made me think if at least one of the judges was thinking 'Now we're even. Don't talk to me again'. |
