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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (39997)	11/26/2000 5:24:44 PM
From: Demosthenes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

When I began putting $ in this sector in 98, I had no idea that there would be so much misunderstanding surrounding industry measurements, i.e., BTB. "Flat" (bookings) is expressed and perceived negatively. I sure would like to think the misunderstanding would diminish among professionals on the Street. D

To: Ian@SI who wrote (39997)	11/26/2000 8:52:08 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Flat bookings, if continued, would mean that the only potential sources of earnings growth would be price increases and reductions in cost. What PEG would Wall Street consider to be justified under those circumstances? I sure don't know, and I don't think anyone else knows either. The fact that the postulated flat bookings would be a record would be small consolation in the face of such uncertainty.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (39997)	11/27/2000 8:49:29 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 70976

I didn't take his guidance as discouraging - in fact he said "it was good. He did say the industry was in between wave 1 lack of capacity expansion from 98 and wave 2 use of new materials and then wave 3 300 mm. He further said this time period was hard to give guidance on because they needed to see how their customers would issue p.o.'s into the next year.If you've ever done business with a large company regarding the expenditures of millions of dollars - you schedule deliveries to minimize your WIP or receivables. This is far from the end of the world - it is prudent good business. Some times our over zealous need for immediate gain overstrips managements reality to do good business.In short price gets ahead of the stock. What has occurred in the last 8 months is an adjustment to reality. This adjustment is negatively overdone by the bears just as august 99 thru march 2000 was obviously overdone to the top side. Keep your time horizon focussed on investments and not speculation and a lot of the noise gets filtered out.JMHO Bob