To: tekboy who wrote (35342 ) 11/27/2000 4:00:56 PM From: StockHawk Respond to of 54805 tekboy, that was a great post. Wanting to stay fully invested, wanting to grab bargains when seemingly available and wanting to stay off too much margin are three goals that are difficult to do simultaneously. One of the fascinating things about the Market is that the lessons it teaches are not always the same. Late last year, we tried a timing test to make stock purchases. In a raging bull market the test failed, and the Market taught that getting in ASAP was the way to go. If we had tried that test one year later, in a falling market, the lesson would have been quite different. Many times over the past few years the Market has taught "buy the dips" but this year "sell the dips" might have been the wiser choice. Most dips prestaged greater falls, and buy the second or third rebound might have worked better. Technology Investor Magazine just tried using stop losses, and guess what? In a falling market they concluded that stop losses work. Will they have the same results in the next bull phase? Apollo's question of our biggest mistakes is a great one. It's a wonderful learning tool. But in learning from our many mistakes we should not lose sight of one very important failing of many market participants. That is extrapolating the recent past into the future. Many relatively foolish moves were rewarded last year, while many relatively smart moves have been slammed this year. At one time I worked as an auditor, and one of our standing jokes was that we would draw conclusions "based on a sample of one." I know that's not very funny, but the point, of course, is that it takes many samples under different circumstances to effect a sound conclusion. And today's lesson, although fresh, is not more valid than yesterday's lesson. That might seem obvious, but it took me a while to get it, so it seemed worth mentioning. StockHawk