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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20816)	11/28/2000 7:41:38 AM
From: aburner	Respond to of 275872

Michael, a few thoughts from me in no particular order: - re only 1.4mio Athlons in Q3, I thought it was 2.2mio?: you missed the 0.6 million Slot-A Athlons - the average Joe Taxpayer wants a cheap PC and thus will buy a Duron so AMD needs to produce more of them than Athlons - Durons will replace lower priced K6-X - AMD will be able to at least keep ASPs at a level with upcoming cheaper mainboards based on integrated chipsets from VIA (see the next entry on xbit-labs: xbitlabs.com and SiS - Durons are manufactured in Fab 25 in Austin, so this won't hinder the ramp of Athlon production in Dresden - I don't think 0.13 production lines will need 50% of Dresden fab space initially - re Dresden is yielding very poorly: Remember the line "80% of Dresden is 1 GHz+"? ;) - Durons are necessary to fight Celerons, not P4 - xbit provided no data for Q2,3,4 2001; if AMD according to that table indeed manages to sell more CPUs in Q1 (where sales are usually down) than in Q4 I'd be very pleased ABurner

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20816)	11/28/2000 9:08:02 AM
From: Andrew Shih	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Assuming the following: Q3 ASP for Athlons = $180 ASP for Durons = $60 ASP for K6 = $50 Q4 ASP for Athlons = $175 ASP for Durons = $60 ASP for K6 = $45 Q1 ASP for Athlons = $175 ASP for Durons = $60 ASP for K6 = $40 Plugging in the numbers from xbit gives: Q Sales Rev ASP Q3 6.9 621 $90 Q4 9 813 $90.3 Q1 9.2 842 $91.6 From Q4 to Q1, 1.5 million K6 are replaced by Durons. That helps to keep ASPs high. -Andrew

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20816)	11/28/2000 9:16:52 AM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: Did you see the AMD processors production number table Looks like Duron is being positioned against P3 while Athlon is positioned against P4. As long as this is done by raising Duron ASPs (not hard to do if motherboard prices drop by $30 to $50 next quarter) it seems like a reasonable strategy. Intel will be trying to position P3 against Athlon, so AMD must not flood the market with Athlons and dilute the brand. Profits will grow more if the prices of all chips they sell rise by $10 than if they sell 20% more high end chips all at 20% lower prices. And don't forget that this is the quarter that will take the biggest hit from 2 Durons replacing 3 K6s in the production line. Q1 (with its traditionally slow sales) is a good time to make this transition. Going forward, we will see a reverse effect as 1 P4 replaces 3 P3s. Dan

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20816)	11/28/2000 9:19:41 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Michael: Think marketshare, over and over and over...Q4 target is 9 million and Q1 (typically quieter than Q4)is 9.2 million, which if successful bodes well for 28 million in Y2000 and 40 million in y2001... The market is dictating what AMD produces and its calling for heavy weighting of Durons by the looks of things...In the table you'll notice that the increase in Durons in Q1 is offset by the decrease in K6's...That can only help ASP...As well, it won't be surprising if the ASP gap between comparable INTC/AMD processors narrows as AMD's market foothold continues to grow, and any narrowing of the gap is likely to benefit AMD ASP's particularly if INTC is able to hold their line... The key is marketshare defined by 28 million in Y2001 and 40 million in Y2001 (up from 18.8 million in Y1999)...AMD is well positioned to meet these targets...In another market, such positive performance would be more warmly rewarded than with a $19 price!!!