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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chomolungma who wrote (3672)	11/28/2000 9:35:29 AM
From: Carolyn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

A guy on Fox last night was explaining those "uncounted" (uncounted to the Dems only) ballots. The precincts counted were heavily Democratic. The Republican precincts had not yet been touched. If the percentages were the same for those already counted, then Bush would add even more votes to the final tally.

To: chomolungma who wrote (3672)	11/28/2000 9:43:46 AM
From: TraderGreg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

Let's go inside the numbers to do a little bit of analysis into why Gore just won't seem to let go. Gore's relative vote margin lead nationwide (percentage differential) is much greater than Bush's relative margin in FL...think about that!! A chump change 300,000 vote nationwide lead out of 100,000,000 votes cast would be equivalent to an 18,000 vote lead in a FL with 6mm votes cast. Yet, the current 500+/- FL differential is a fraction of that 18,000. Many have said that Gore should do what Nixon and Ford did in 1960 and 1976 respectively. But let’s do a little comparison of the 3 elections: 2000—One state is critical to the election of either candidate, namely FL. Nearly 6 mm votes cast, 500 +/- vote differential. A differential of less than 1/100 of 1% of the total votes cast. 1960—Kennedy won IL by a mere 9000 out of 4.7mm cast, which would correspond to a win of nearly 11,500 if 6 mm votes had been cast. That narrow victory is more than 20 times the current vote differential in FL. Kennedy won TX by 46000 out of 2.3 mm cast, which would correspond to a win of nearly 120,000 if 6 mm votes had been cast. That narrow victory was more than 200 times the current vote differential in FL. So, in both of the states that Nixon was contemplating a challenge, the relative lead differential dwarfed the current situation in FL. Moreover, Nixon would have had to have been successful in BOTH of those challenges to have won the Electoral College in 1960. 1976--In 1976, Carter won OH by 11,000 out of 4mm votes cast and he won MS by 15000 out of 800,000 votes cast. Without doing the math, you see that both of these narrow margins also dwarf the current FL situation. In fact, the MS margin of victory is a landslide by comparison. Moreover, Ford would also have had to win BOTH recounts in OH and MS to have won the Electoral College. 1960 and 1976 elections with two "close" states each both pale in comparison to the 2000 FL vote margin in the ONE, and only ONE, state that is critical for victory. Having said that, perhaps even a dispassionate observer can understand why the passions are running so high here. I would think that all the partisans can understand it. TG

To: chomolungma who wrote (3672)	11/28/2000 10:41:50 AM
From: Cisco	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6710

Al Gore's margin in the original Miami-Dade count was 6.3%. If there are 10,000 "undervotes" then Mr. Gore could reasonably expect to pick up 634 votes. If one-half of one percent of those are true "protest" votes; which is the national average, it would make the expected pickup for Gore around 440 votes. I would have to disagree! The precincts that were counted in Dale before they discontinued the counting were precincts that Gore carried by over 70%. The precincts that remain are precincts that Bush carried by 54%! It has been calculated that if the recounts had continued that Bush would have gained 300-600 votes in the rest of the county. They say this is the real reason that the canvassing board decided to stop where they did and not count the original Gore gain. BTW, there were 175,000 under votes statewide in FL and over 2,000,000 nationwide!