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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20830)	11/28/2000 10:25:35 AM
From: Andrew Shih	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Does anyone have a good estimate of ASPs to use for Athlon, Duron, & K6? If Athlon ASPs are $130, the rest (Duron + K6) would need ASP of $75 to make $90 overall ASP for the quarter. Also, wasn't the remark mid-teens growth Y to Y for Q1? -Andrew

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20830)	11/28/2000 10:26:15 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Michael: "But with flat growth it will even reduce Q to Q EPS ! Opinions ?" Maybe, maybe not...Profitability will be a function of ASP which could rise or could fall...At an AMD price of $19, the market is saying AMD's ASP is going to drop to around $60 in Q1...I doubt that will happen...I'd guess ASP's will hover at $90 for Q4 and possibly Q1 before moving up handsomely, which if so, supports Needham's AMD price target of $58 and more...

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20830)	11/28/2000 10:31:26 AM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

<< Yes, but your Athlon ASP is way too high. According to my calculations Athlon ASP in Q3 was only around $130 ! This means that they will have to struggle hard to make Q4 estimates. And worse Q1 will most likely be flat. So, no 10% Q to Q growth as promised. Also, the higher tax rate and higher depreciation costs will kill Q to Q growth. But with flat growth it will even reduce Q to Q EPS ! Opinions ?>> ASP for Athlons = $180 ASP for Durons = $60 ASP for K6 = $50 Q Sales Rev ASP Q3 6.9 621 $90 (above is the previously listed calculations) If you shift the Athlon asp to 130, then the overall asp would be 79, so one of the other portions would have to rise to make up that difference. It's safe to say that the k6 asp wasn't above 50, so it'd have to be the duron asp that would have been higher then the previous estimate. If this were the case the Duron ASP would have to be at 106 to still get the average asp of 90 that we know is true. If you'd like to use that example and extrapolate forward, then the overall ASP would rise even more dramatically then previously posted. Clearly, I don't think the Duron ASP was that high, which means that the Athlon ASP must have been much higher. The first guesses were certainly reasonable, but maybe not exact, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Duron ASP around 70-75, and an athlon ASP lower enough to make the average come out at 90, but since Duron's are increasing faster, that would be an even better trade off for us. In a way, most of this is moot. AMD has said they expect ASPs to remain flat around 90 for this quarter coming up (with a possible slight increase if I'm not mistaken) so instead of arguing particulars 90*9 mil 810M in revenue, now it just remains to be seen whether we can hit the unit number on the ixbt table. Isn't the 9M unit number a lot higher then guidance? (I thought guidance was for around 8.2M)

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20830)	11/28/2000 11:49:30 AM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Michael, Re: And worse Q1 will most likely be flat. So, no 10% Q to Q growth as promised. AMD never promised 10% Q to Q growth. What they projected was high teens growth for Q1 YoY. And this means that sales will be roughly flat from Q4 to Q1 -- but this is old news (and normal since it's a normal saisonal slowdown after the shopping season). Andreas

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (20830)	11/28/2000 12:24:28 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Michael, And worse Q1 will most likely be flat. So, no 10% Q to Q growth as promised. Also, the higher tax rate and higher depreciation costs will kill Q to Q growth. But with flat growth it will even reduce Q to Q EPS ! Opinions ? Q1 revenue will likely be DOWN from Q4. This is normal. Q1 earnings before and after taxes will certainly be down. See my detailed analysis at Message 14770455 BTW, AMD never promised 10% sequential revenue growth past Q4. You will note that with the tax hurdle and Q1/Q2 slowdown, Q4'2000 EPS will probably not be exceeded until Q4'2001. The tax rate going from an effective rate of 16% in Y2000 to 31% in Y2001 makes a BIG difference -- more than 15% if you do the math. Petz