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Technology Stocks : PMC-Sierra (PMCS) - moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (121)	11/28/2000 4:18:23 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

Yah, it goes back to the heart of the valuation issue. PMC will grow above consensus but will decelerate on its growth, which apparently automatically means below tech investors expecations. The question becomes how do you discount decelerating growth. This is exacerbated for folks like me who buy and hold with a trivial cost basis. From a longer term perspective, revenues will be in a position to accelerate off the reduced (forward) sequential growth. Do you sell here and potentially save some downside? If you wait for reacceleration, you will invaribaly be buying after some good appreciation - but will it be from lower absoulte levels? Nahh fuck it, you can talk yourself in a circle on this stuff, buy when they drop by a significant amount and trim strength on unsustainable acceleration. My cost basis on PMCS rounds to zero but rather than buy aggressively, the only thing I care to do in this market is come to SI and laugh at the bullshit going around. 2735 on the NASDAQ and there is not much rally in it. Nothing changes until the fed does something or we have a capitulation, forced margin-selling climax. I still don't see that. On the other hand, you can now buy triple digit growth companies set for 15-20%+ op margin companies for mid single digit-forward revenue multiples these days. This is the profile I want to be diversified into. My discipline of time diversifaction prevents me from loading up here. I am a nibbler over time - not a bottom/top picker. What are your thoughts on earnings pre-announcments. I smell some more whiffs from the entire electronics industry; PC, semis, wireless. Until somebody preannounces positive (Ariba will in early Jan), no good news on the horizon with preannouncements coming... The only positive would be if Mr Greenspan does something. However, I doubt he does anything until there is a dramatic selling climax and he risks forcing a hard landing.