The casualness that seems to pervade on this board tells me that I must be the only idiot that has ridden this NASDAQ crash (excuse me, CORRECTION) down 50% from its top in March. Actually, my portfolio is down 20% from the beginning of the year, 33% off its high of this year. Were I all in techs, I suppose I'd be down the full 50%. Given the 220% rise I enjoyed last year, it isn't a world-ending experience for me, but I'm just about had enough of watching my portfolio shrink. I'm going to get out while I can still live comfortably off my portfolio. But, of course, before I do that, I must make the obligatory parting shot across the bow of the villains, particularly the analysts and brokerage houses that I feel have precipitated this whole mess that we now find ourselves in.
I have to admit that I really don't understand this bashing of the techs. I'm not exactly the smartest guy in the world, but I'm not stupid either. If someone asked me if the current cycle is nearing an end, I'd really have to say "I don't think so." Equipment and chip shipments are at all-time peaks, the BTB is still positive; there have been some push-outs, some cancellations, but most of these were due to component shortages that precluded building enough front-end equipment on time, which rippled through the back-end of the business. But, it could also simply be a temporary lull in the cycle, to be followed by an even greater push next year. But, instead of taking a "glass is half-full" view of the situation, they've chosen to pursue the "gloom and doom" scenario, promoting an air of fear and uncertainty about future tech orders, revenue, earnings; and now they sit around bemoaning the very uncertainty they've created!
So, each day, the wire services parrot the Street's generic phrases such as "diminished bookings seen, earnings slowdowns ahead, high p/e's, and end of the cycle", to explain why techs bombed that particular day. C'mon guys, look at the "high p/e's" of the tech stocks; most of them have come down a hell of a long ways...... what's so high about 5.2 for KLIC, 7+ for COHU, 7 for LTXX, and these are CURRENT p/e's? "Well, when you lump them in with all the other techs........", some might say. And yet, didn't we hear the investment houses this spring and summer describing how "The party is over, investors are going to have to start doing some serious research to pick and choose the winners from now on." So, I did my serious research, and bought into these (and others), expecting that analysts would also be giving kudos to some of these beaten up stocks.
But apparently sifting, winnowing, and picking future winners in the tech arena is just to difficult for the analysts. For the most part, all I've seen is them dumping on the whole damn industry! So much for their serious approach to stock picking.
I could go on for the rest of the night, but I'm sure I'm boring most of you, and I'm smart enough to know that Wall St. is not entirely to blame for what's going on. But I think they precipitated something, fed on it, and are now watching it spiral inward, almost out of control. I don't think anyone saw the oil-price hikes coming, the Fed's ultra-paranoid stance against inflation, the massive shorting by the hedge funds, the uncertainty and fear generated by this election.....these are the current factors aiding and abetting the spin-in of the market.......and aiding me in making my decision.
But probably the largest single factor pushing me to my decision, is that to my knowledge, NOT ONE important personage, no politicians... no Fed officials...no prominent Wall St. firms, no important industry heads, are raising their voices, or lifting a finger to stop, or even slow down, this unwinding of the NASDAQ and ultimately the Big Board
And THATs scary!
Regards, (And I hope I'm wrong! And I reserve my right to continue posting! And I hope we have a little D/C bounce tomorrow before I exit!)
Knip |
