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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (40093)	11/28/2000 11:04:25 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Knip, I get the feeling the analysts and their firms are fueling the negative atmosphere to create even better buying opps for themselves or their top clients. By getting out you're playing into their hands. The feeling now is "tech is dead" [someone actually said that on CNBC a while ago]. Wasn't it that way at the '98 bottom? The casualness you observe here is borne of desperation and acceptance, I think. Gottfried

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (40093)	11/29/2000 12:18:53 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 70976

I think we are "casual" in that this happens and we've been through it before. I've gone through several cycles with AMAT and the bottom has always gotten higher. Remember, bottoms are put in when bulls sell out in a panic just before the sidelined money comes roaring in. They sound desperate just like your post... tired of seeing their portfolios go down and want it to stop. I've seen more people lose money getting whip-sawed out that way where you try to come back in 20% higher and kick yourself for years and swear off market timing until you do it again. Go ahead, I have my price to buy and perhaps if enough of you cave in to the analcysts, then I can get some really cheap shares at my target price, but I'd rather not see the price go that low. But, if you are retired and living off your portfolio and can continue as it is, then SOME defensive moves might be appropriate just on an asset allocation basis - especially if you have too much in the market. I still prefer to do my selling into strength. Check out this chart stockcharts.com[L,A]WALLYYMY[PB200!B][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9] I might be a buyer IF we cross below the green line (actually, my safe target is lower, but.... I'd give it a good thought at that level) good luck! Kirk out

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (40093)	11/29/2000 1:39:13 AM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

"The casualness that seems to pervade on this board tells me that I must be the only idiot that has ridden this NASDAQ crash (excuse me, CORRECTION) down 50% from its top in March." My losses are, by percentage, twice yours, perhaps a tad more. The only thing that is saving me is a that I caught the entire QCOM run last year, and had hundreds of yhoo calls at the end of 1999, and those were my main positions. I have done maybe 5 things right this year out of a hundred decisions, after batting .950 for about 15 years. I know other, much more conservative souls believe this drop was deserved after the run we had, but I do not. I could go on for 100 pages too, but it is better for me that I don't argue the bull case vigorously. My personal primary frustration is reading and hearing how so many have been right about companies like BRCM, and AMAT, and LSI and ADI and even ARBA, or INKT....they all had to crash, they went up to fast, they were overpriced. Well, none of the above examples have had the expected hiccup in their business yet; they are growing so fast that they have more than grown into their valuations this year. Analysts keep putting out reports about telecom spending, for example, but lo and behold after months of their bs, none of the large equipment sellers see any impact. Of course their stocks are down 60% in price and 80% on peg from the high, on a "slowdown" that has yet to occur. This entire episode really feels like it started as an appropriate correction to overvaluation, but then has snowballed absurdly due to the fed sucking liquidity out; small investors and inexperienced fund managers/analysts panicking due to their inability to know how to price a very fast growing enterprise,(and manage margin); the media stating INCESSANTLY that we are all stupid to buy into the growth story; the Fed really overstepping in the last rate move and then keeping their tight bias at the latest meeting, (don't look now but we have an international meltdown in the works again...is it early 1998?); and now the election fiasco. The pitiful thing is that I bet we DO get a tech spending slowdown now....this drop has created a self fullfilling prophesy. I have never seen anything like it, but indeed, I won't forget. You are right about the silence. In 1987, Reagan immediately commented about the drop. CNBC has the world convinced that the nasdaq needed to crash so its no big deal, so no one is speaking up. I bet the economy is about to speak up....but I bet AG steps in again and we get a rally that is silly in its vigor....if they would step in now, we wouldn't need to then overcorrect to the upside like we did in 1991, and 1996, 1998 and 1999. Maybe AG likes to be the hero? take care, Gene

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (40093)	11/29/2000 2:03:36 AM
From: brunn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The casualness that seems to pervade on this board tells me that I must be the only idiot that has ridden this NASDAQ crash... I have ridden this crash and I wager most on this board have too. But after having seen the NASDAQ go from 1400 to 5000 in a year and a half I have decided anything can happen and it is hard to be stunned anymore. Regarding your feeling about the analysts, see the following: biz.yahoo.com Following any of the brokerage's recommendations would have produced worse returns than a buy and hold strategy. For example, Advest wanted you to sell in June, 1998 at 15, sell some more at 16,then buy at 17 and at 18 buy some more--all within 5 months. Then they told us to sell at 32 in August 1999, but wanted us to buy in again at 105 this April. Interesting to note the 6 downgrades in June-August, 1998--the best time to buy in the last 3 years.

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (40093)	11/29/2000 7:00:05 AM
From: Alan Siegal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Dale, I try to remember that Wall Street analysts have several functions. They probably arose from the need of the bosses at investment bankers to keep real tabs on who was running the companies they invested in and if they were acting diligently and honestly. The information the boss pays them for probably doesn't leave the inner chamber in its whole form. Just as a fisherman may use some of his catch to cut up into chum to attract more fish, the boss may let out excerpts of the analyst's observations to create more market. Remember, the investment banker is affiliated with a commission-collecting broker, too. As detailed information declines to disembodied fragments, and price charts begin to take a life of their own, the public and analysts create a spirit of the times. The bits of information can now be fed in a sort of "trend is your friend" stream to the public whereby other analysts can make similar pronouncements, not to educate those who don't pay them, but to help establish a current in either direction. There need not be any actual conspiracy whereby the houses speak to one another, they can feel it and play into it, knowing that they can always churn business. We, just like the bosses, can buy well-run companies when they're cheap, if we know they're staying in business and making money. We can't collect commissions, so we have less of an interest in frenzy, but over a period of time, we can do well. If we were in the position of a brokerage firm, wouldn't we do things just the same way? BTW, I just looked at some OLD charts. DJ-30 from '65 to '82 and SP-500 from 72-82 went so NOWHERE that it's a fright to behold. I am largely invested in broad indices and that truly gives me pause (I'm 50 and am not in the mood to wait 25 years for a big rise. That's okay for my kids.) However, chips are here to stay, and the manufacturers will always need expensive equipment. Linens are here to stay too, but the sheetmakers don't have to buy the latest copper, 300 mm equipment, they just have to change the print. I believe we will still see excellent business, and ultimately, the greedy must follow with their dollars. I, along with others, look forward to buying more in our favorite group from panicked sellers. I hope those shares come from sources other than the fine folks at this forum. -Alan

To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (40093)	11/29/2000 1:29:52 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

You sure got a lot of responses to that post. I am about 30% below my high for the year.......and 2000% ahead of where I was 5 years ago. This is the third time I have followed AMAT daily, as it got chopped in half and kept going down......and I am 110% certain it will hit new alltime highs........eventually. My casualness is born of experience, not deer-in-the-headlight numbness. I'm batting about .500 for this year: went to mostly cash January to June, then jumped back in too soon. If I buy AMAT, I'll need to sell something else, and I'll do that, if I decide 40 is going to hold, or if it goes to 30. Even if we get a recession, and a sharp downturn in semi-equip bookings, and I time it wrong, and buy AMAT way too soon, all I have to do is hold on, and within 2-3 years, I'll have an excellent return. At worst, we'll get a 1987 or 1998-type downturn: brutal but short-lived. Time, and not all that much time (I can wait 2 years), will fix it. We are NOT going to get a downturn in stocks that lasts a decade before hitting new highs. That would require one of two things, neither of which is going to happen, IMO: 1. interest rates go up and stay up. 30-year fixed mortgages hit 20%, briefly, in 1980, after being at 4% in the mid-1960s. That's why the 1970s were so bad for stock investors. I see zero chance of double-digit 30Y fixed mortgages in the forseable future. 2. profits and margins go down and stay down. I have plenty of stocks to choose from, to fill my portfolio with, in companies who I think will be growing EPS, long-term, at 20%+ (some of them 20%++++++++). As long as those two things don't happen, and I see little possibility of them happening, my longterm stance will be bullish. My attitude toward all downturns will be, "this too shall pass". Of course, I still may sell AMAT when it hits a P/S over 8, and I may buy market puts when the S&P is over a PE of 30, but those are just short-term tactics/risk reduction.