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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack T. Pearson who wrote (36613)	11/28/2000 11:54:55 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Jack, I think that we can both agree that FA, like TA, is subject to personal interpretation and attempts, like TA, to look in a rear view mirror while driving forward, and both are subject to subsequent events. The Big Boyz is a project I started a long time ago. While the composition of its current membership is probably unimportant, a dated post that identifies them can be seen: Message 13790334 As to the current year estimates of EPS, I would only note that almost 3/4 of the amount is in the bag so to speak. I would say that the decline from 30+% this year to 19% next year suggests a contraction taking place. I would agree that some of the EPS earnings estimates will change; however, I don't project them, I only record them and try to divine some inspiration from the information. Actually, only two of the Big Boyz had negative earnings in 1999 (AHP & JDSU). An economic slow down, if it materializes, will affect the little fish in the food chain to a much greater extent than the Big Boyz. In the current quarter, with all the doom and gloom, the Big Boyz show a 16% increase in EPS over last year. The current (11/17) median PE of the Big Boyz is 26.7 as compared to 23.9 for an average of the last 7 years. I will agree that it is not ideal, but definitely better than the median PE of 30.6 for 1999 and 28.7 for 1998. Considering the Asian meltdown in '98 and Y2K (remember that one) concerns last year, the current doom and gloom seems rather dull by comparison. I would respectfully disagree that "the impact of the last Fed increase [has] yet to be fully accomodated." Interest rates are significantly lower than before the Fed last raised rates. I don't pay any attention to "orders," so cannot comment on an "apparent decline." Berney