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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: limtex who wrote (20349)11/28/2000 10:42:21 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
re: "Normal corrections we've lived through over the last few years but this is something else."

this is the painful second leg of a longterm correction
the bull run was for five years, starting LaborDay94
this is a correction after Naz rose from 900 to 5000

a 5/8 retracement puts Naz at 2440
a 1/2 retracement puts Naz at 2950

I think earnings for Q4 are gonna be more trouble
and forward guidance will be gruesome

I agree with what Stockman said
any Fed rate cut will take 4-6 months to be felt
just like climax stupid rate hikes in May took until now to be felt
that was a colossal error by the Federal Reserve
we are paying now for their errors
and it will take two full quarters to reverse that error

I just cannot believe how I called the Fed's excessive tightening
how I called the Nov-Dec timeframe for climax slowdown effect
BUT REMAINED LONG

the doctor diagnoses me as "pathologically bullish"
maybe I deserve to be culled by the Fed

we got a rally with little conviction coming
both prez election conclusion and Fed neutral bias will assist a desired yearend rally
but it will only set up another leg down, perhaps large

excuse me, but Jim Jones is at the door bearing drinks
/ Jim