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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack T. Pearson who wrote (14458)	11/29/2000 10:04:13 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

DT: "An 'increase' takes approximately 14 months to work through the system." J.T.P.: "I think the more commonly accepted number is six months. " Do the math. When was the first rate hike? Which quarter showed the earnings growth drop? If your final answer is 6 it is wrong. Way wrong. If you answer was: June 30, 1999 (from 4.75 to 5.00) to October, 2000 == 16, Are you sure? If you are, then you are correct. See, why I think there is way too much optimism? Everybody seems to want to downplay this thing. Wanted to downplay the growing danger as valuations exploded. And almost everybody seems to want to downplay how long this thing is going to last. We have not YET even seen the effect of the .5 hike last May. Why is nobody even thinking, let alone trying to figure out what effect it will have on corporate profits. (Sure you have to buy 'near' the bottom and early is better than late. I know this from playing the semiconductor capital equipment company cyclical game.) This is way too early. But, it's like any wiff or chimera of an end to the madness is immediately expanded into "The nightmare is over." Again, this is my 2c for what it is worth. Ciao, David Todtman