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To: TobagoJack who wrote (63367)11/29/2000 10:02:33 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™  Respond to of 99985
 
that's plenty of ideas already!

nice!

J



To: TobagoJack who wrote (63367)11/29/2000 10:29:02 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
everymen 2000 (one earning $100k and one earning $200k

I feel these incomes are a little high for "everymen". Isn't 200K about 2nd or 3rd percentile (I thought it was first as recently as 96 or so)? Would imagine 100K is still top 5 or 10%.

edit: I imagine selected income level is important as this is a tell on required portfolio size for retirement. In the somewhat unconventional "Money for Life", Robert Sheard recommends 20x income requirement, so for 200k that would be 4mil port. A more conservative portfolio requirement for 200k income (infl. adjusted) might be 50% more (i.e., 6mil).



To: TobagoJack who wrote (63367)11/30/2000 8:30:09 AM
From: flatsville  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Jay-

This is a very ambitious project. So ambitious that someone should pay you or when completed try to sell it.

The problem I have with your study are these parameters:

(a) construction income & expense statement of everymen 1990 (one earning $50k and one earning $100k) and balance sheet,

(b) assuming that no one wants to retire on a lesser income than they were then currently getting, inflation adjusted

c) constructing income/expense and balance sheet for everymen 2000 (one earning $100k and one earning $200k), inflation adjust 1990 retirement pot amount


I think you will find that neither the $50,000 (1990) nor the $100,000 (1990 or 2000) everyman will be able to retire...ever...if the assumption is that they will need/require an income equal to what they were earning in the year preceeding retirement.

Many financial advisors suggest you plan to have yearly retirement income equal to 75-85% of pre-retirement earnings. I think most people in the above income categories will fail to meet that less than 100% target in the future.

Also I think you need to consider what age are these people in your study, life expectancy/annuitization of pay-out, and a whole host of other issues.

Like I said, this is very ambitious and will take more than a few days to do it and do it right. It will take a few days just to think of how to model the study IMHO.