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To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (80377)	11/30/2000 10:50:41 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Ronald, the natural gas story. Based on your table of gas inventories, I'm going to estimate that we have AGA numbers for the next five weeks of -75, -75, -100, -175, -150. These are guesswork, but no too different from past years figures. If those are reasonably close they mean we will enter 2001 with 1,925 BCF, compared to 2,437 for last year's mild winter and 2,645 for 1998. It looks to me like we are in a serious bind regardless of how cold this winter is. I'm holding out for a last hurrah in E&P's. Sharp

To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (80377)	12/3/2000 5:26:39 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Ron, Thanks so much for keeping the AGA data coming. We are all finding it very useful. Here's an interesting tidbit from the table. The cumulative draw from the coming week's storage in the prior year, to the low point for the winter (1008 on 4/14/00) was 1924. Let's just say Wednesday's storage number comes in at 2400, a draw of 102 BCF for the week (this is a conservative guess based on what I've been hearing). If you subtract 1924 from 2400 you get only 476 BCF projected to be left at the end of this winter, a dangerously low amount. And that 1924 BCF of draw happened in one of the warmest winters on record! The cumulative draw from the same date two years ago to the winter low was 1769, not much less than last year. Is that table on an Excel spreadsheet by any chance? If so, you could keep an update of the above calculation going each time you update the table. IMO this is what folks are going to be focusing on in the coming months.

To: Ronald J. Clark who wrote (80377)	12/6/2000 2:08:52 PM
From: Ronald J. Clark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

AGA Table - Fall/Winter 2000 Weekly change in Gas Storage / Total Working Gas in Storage (Expressed in Billion Cubic Feet)= B See also Note at bottom of this table. 2000 1999 1998 1/14 -110B / 2127B 1/15 -203B / 2209B 1/16 -159B / 1860B 1/21 -195B / 2017B 1/22 -92B / 2117B 1/23 -159B / 1701B 1/28 -242B / 1775B 1/29 -78B / 2039B 1/30 -102B / 1599B 2/4 -213B / 1562B 2/5 -93B / 1946B 2/6 -81B / 1518B 2/11 -158B / 1404B 2/12 -59B / 1885B 2/13 -93B / 1425B 2/18 -136B / 1268B 2/19 -97B / 1788B 2/20 -77B / 1348B 2/25 - 74B / 1194B 2/26 -128B / 1660B 2/27 -47B / 1301B 3/3 -37B / 1157B 3/5 -69B / 1591B 3/6 -54B / 1247B 3/10 -31B / 1126B 3/12 -132B / 1459B 3/13 -143B / 1104B 3/17 -62B / 1064B 3/19 -87B / 1372B 3/20 -78B / 1026B 3/24 -43B / 1021B 3/26 -37B / 1335B 3/27 -20B / 1006B 3/31 - 5B / 1031B 4/02 + 2B / 1337B 4/03 +53B / 1059B 4/07 + 2B / 1033B 4/09 +30B / 1367B 4/10 +22B / 1081B 4/14 -25B / 1008B 4/16 + 2B / 1369B 4/17 +54B / 1135B 4/21 +19B / 1027B 4/23 + 5B / 1374B 4/24 +64B / 1199B 4/28 +32B / 1059B 4/30 +34B / 1408B 5/01 +78B / 1277B 5/5 +58B / 1117B 5/07 +72B / 1480B 5/08 +100B / 1377B 5/12 +46B / 1163B 5/14 +79B / 1559B 5/15 +92B / 1469B 5/19 +55B / 1218B 5/21 +73B / 1632B 5/22 +92B / 1561B 5/26 +56B / 1274B 5/28 +71B / 1703B 5/29 +106B / 1667B 6/02 +78B / 1352B 6/04 +91B / 1794B 6/05 +85B / 1753B 6/09 +78B / 1430B 6/11 +63B / 1857B 6/12 +104B / 1857B 6/16 +64B / 1494B 6/18 +85B / 1942B 6/19 +82B / 1939B 6/23 +73B / 1567B 6/25 +91B / 2033B 6/26 +72B / 2011B 6/30 +69B / 1636B 7/02 +69B / 2102B 7/03 +74B / 2085B 7/07 +97B / 1733B 7/09 +59B / 2161B 7/10 +93B / 2178B 7/14 +70B / 1803B 7/16 +78B / 2239B 7/17 +79B / 2257B 7/21 +54B / 1857B 7/23 +41B / 2280B 7/24 +66B / 2323B 7/28 +63B / 1920B 7/30 +26B / 2306B 7/31 +70B / 2393B 8/04 +65B / 1985B 8/06 +45B / 2351B 8/07 +75B / 2468B 8/11 +52B / 2037B 8/13 +51B / 2402B 8/14 +76B / 2544B 8/18 +55B / 2092B 8/20 +50B / 2452B 8/21 +71B / 2615B 8/25 +52B / 2144B 8/27 +69B / 2521B 8/28 +57B / 2672B 9/01 +42B / 2186B 9/03 +66B / 2587B 9/04 +35B / 2707B 9/08 +72B / 2258B 9/10 +81B / 2688B 9/11 +70B / 2777B 9/15 +67B / 2325B 9/17 +78B / 2746B 9/18 +52B / 2829B 9/22 +77B / 2402B 9/24 +79B / 2825B 9/25 +41B / 2870B 9/29 +78B / 2480B 10/01 +62B / 2887B 10/02 +41B / 2911B 10/06 +62B / 2542B 10/08 +49B / 2936B 10/09 +41B / 2952B 10/13 +29B / 2571B 10/15 +42B / 2978B 10/16 +58B / 3010B 10/20 +71B / 2642B 10/22 +13B / 2991B 10/23 +36B / 3046B 10/27 +70B / 2712B 10/29 + 4B / 2995B 10/30 +48B / 3093B 11/03 +36B / 2748B 11/05 +12B / 3007B 11/06 -24B / 3070B 11/10 - 6B / 2742B 11/12 +9B / 3016B 11/13 -45B / 3082B 11/17 -94B / 2648B 11/19 -20B / 2996B 11/20 -13B / 3069B 11/24-146B / 2502B 11/26 +5B / 3001B 11/27 +8B / 3077B 12/01 -73B / 2429B 12/03 -69B / 2932B 12/04 +27B / 3104B 12/08 ? 12/10 -73B / 2859B 12/11 -49B / 3055B 12/15 ? 12/17 -116B / 2743B 12/18 -85B / 2970B 12/22 ? 12/24 -173B / 2570B 12/25 -167B / 2803B 12/29 ? 12/31 -133B / 2437B 01/01 -158B / 2645B Note: 1. EIA revised 3/3/2000 draw from original -29B to -37B. 2. In reporting on the week ending 3/31/2000, EIA upwardly revised storage capacity by 46B (wihout this revision the draw for the week ending 3/31 would have been 51B).