Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aburner who wrote (21222)	11/30/2000 6:55:52 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

ABurner, I can't get rid of the feeling that something big is shaping up. It's about the virtual Gorilla that Jerry described ... something like AMD getting near critical mass; i.e. each announcement of chipsets, motherboards, RAM adds to AMD's weight and will help it become a full grown gorilla itself who is able to seriously knock-out Intel. That is a remote possibility, but all AMD needs is a fraction of the above to be a successful company. AMD's (optimistic) goal is to achieve 30% market share. To get there from here (17.5% share), AMD would need to grow 71% if the market remained unchanged, or almost double if the market grows 15%. But the current market valuation is based on no growth at all. To achieve no-growth, while flash grows, CPU would have to actually shrink. So the current valuation of AMD is an aberration. I think the AMD guidance (and EPS estimates) are very conservative, so there is some room for AMD to screw up or for the demand not to materialize while AMD would still meet the estimates. If we get a warning from AMD despite all of this, then the share price is justified. Joe PS: How is the Christmas season in Austria?