To: Tom Johnson who wrote (6023 ) 12/2/2000 12:44:02 PM From: Montana Wildhack Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101 Hi Tom, I noticed in the Globe this morning in David Ebner's column "this week's winner": "Dimethaid Research Inc., a pharmaceutical company, got British regulatory approval for its rub-on osteoarthritis treatment, known as Pennsaid. It's Pennsaid's first green light and the news drove the stock up 72.2 per cent this week. The bounce comes after a 52 week low Nov 23." While on the Stockhouse News Desk, Chaya Copperberg wrote: "In the biotech arena, shares of Dimethaid Research [T.DMX] have been flying, and could continue to soar higher in the first week of December on persisting rumours of coming news. Dimethaid captured the market's attention when it announced in late November that it had received marketing approval in the U.K. for its osteoarthritis treatment. Dimethaid shares continued to rally on speculation that the company was close to announcing a major marketing partner." The big difference between making a deal in the UK now and one in the US (zzzzz) is of course that the sooner this is settled the sooner everybody can get on with making money. This motivation does not exist in the US and should help push all parties towards decisions. On the positive, Rebecca said "very, very soon" a week ago and on the negative this is Dimethaid making a prediction. Notice also that Rebecca predicted 'launch' in March though. Also, a deal can be reached and announced without every wrinkle ironed out. That's probably not her style; but, it happens all the time. There is considerable leverage on our side to either create an agreement or not. With apparently 3 finalists, there was choice as to which combination of pluses & minuses we liked the most. And finally, cash. Despite statements about May 31 which I mathematically agree with, there is considerable pressure to bring in cash - and considerable pressure not to be the cause of delay for a "March launch". Signing (and announcing) the deal in late December would leave the marketer only 90 days to get ready to reach the end of March. The only sound tactic is to conclude a deal with urgent speed. I would think mid December latest. What happens to the stockprice when Rebecca delivers (boom boom) two in a row? Then she's got 90 days or so to conclude a deal for distribution in France, Germany, Italy (Italy is suprisingly big by the way), Sweden, and Switzerland. We may be announcing our continental European partner around the time Pennsaid launches in the UK. Rebecca still doesn't have enough cash to do much with until she gets all these pieces which looks about like this: Cash - need it all to survive into June. UK partner - 3-4 million Cdn (another 6 months worth) Pennsaid first shipment - 1 million Cdn (can't do much) Europe partner - maybe 10-15 million Cdn for all of it UK revenue stream - will take months to build to something like $10 million Cdn in DMX hands annualized and will not by itself make us profitable (because we have to absorb the entire expense base). The second big country does make us profitable; but, again needs numerous months to get there and would launch no earlier than July at breakneck speed. Bottom line - until Dimethaid gets these next pieces done, they won't have enough cash to do anything else with and when we do, we can move to the NASDAQ with some confidence and get enough bucks to start on other big pieces waiting like preparing a Canadian sales/marketing team for that HC approval I would think we'll see by the summer. I predict UK deal announcement by mid December latest which I consider a challenge. BTW - I pedict the probability of everything discussed above being concluded successfully as high. Wolf PS - Green Line selling seems to have disappeared. I'll miss it.