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To: Tom Johnson who wrote (6023)12/2/2000 12:44:02 PM
From: Montana Wildhack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Hi Tom,

I noticed in the Globe this morning in David Ebner's
column "this week's winner":

"Dimethaid Research Inc., a pharmaceutical company, got
British regulatory approval for its rub-on osteoarthritis
treatment, known as Pennsaid. It's Pennsaid's first
green light and the news drove the stock up 72.2 per cent
this week. The bounce comes after a 52 week low Nov 23."

While on the Stockhouse News Desk, Chaya Copperberg wrote:

"In the biotech arena, shares of Dimethaid Research [T.DMX] have been flying, and could continue to soar higher in the first week of December on persisting rumours of coming news. Dimethaid captured the market's attention when it announced in late November that it had received marketing approval in the U.K. for its osteoarthritis treatment. Dimethaid shares continued to rally on speculation that the company was close to announcing a major marketing partner."

The big difference between making a deal in the UK now
and one in the US (zzzzz) is of course that the sooner this
is settled the sooner everybody can get on with making
money. This motivation does not exist in the US and should
help push all parties towards decisions.

On the positive, Rebecca said "very, very soon" a week ago
and on the negative this is Dimethaid making a prediction.

Notice also that Rebecca predicted 'launch' in March though.

Also, a deal can be reached and announced without every
wrinkle ironed out. That's probably not her style; but, it
happens all the time.

There is considerable leverage on our side to either create
an agreement or not. With apparently 3 finalists, there
was choice as to which combination of pluses & minuses we
liked the most.

And finally, cash. Despite statements about May 31 which
I mathematically agree with, there is considerable pressure
to bring in cash - and considerable pressure not to be the
cause of delay for a "March launch".

Signing (and announcing) the deal in late December would
leave the marketer only 90 days to get ready to reach the
end of March.

The only sound tactic is to conclude a deal with urgent
speed. I would think mid December latest.

What happens to the stockprice when Rebecca delivers
(boom boom) two in a row?

Then she's got 90 days or so to conclude a deal for
distribution in France, Germany, Italy (Italy is suprisingly
big by the way), Sweden, and Switzerland.

We may be announcing our continental European partner around
the time Pennsaid launches in the UK.

Rebecca still doesn't have enough cash to do much with until
she gets all these pieces which looks about like this:

Cash - need it all to survive into June.

UK partner - 3-4 million Cdn (another 6 months worth)
Pennsaid first shipment - 1 million Cdn (can't do much)
Europe partner - maybe 10-15 million Cdn for all of it

UK revenue stream - will take months to build to something
like $10 million Cdn in DMX hands annualized and will not
by itself make us profitable (because we have to absorb
the entire expense base).

The second big country does make us profitable; but, again
needs numerous months to get there and would launch no
earlier than July at breakneck speed.

Bottom line - until Dimethaid gets these next pieces done,
they won't have enough cash to do anything else with and
when we do, we can move to the NASDAQ with some confidence
and get enough bucks to start on other big pieces waiting
like preparing a Canadian sales/marketing team for that
HC approval I would think we'll see by the summer.

I predict UK deal announcement by mid December latest which
I consider a challenge.

BTW - I pedict the probability of everything discussed above
being concluded successfully as high.

Wolf

PS - Green Line selling seems to have disappeared. I'll miss it.



To: Tom Johnson who wrote (6023)12/2/2000 4:31:42 PM
From: Tom Drolet  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Tom, Warren, Wolf, Mark,Rondo, John et al:

Upp--got in back in the mid fours with a mid sized Tom position--and got out again on Friday at about an average of $7.50.

Not sure what 'pithy and perspicacious' actually means (being an engineer and all)--but I am going to tread carefully from now on--2 reasons, the overall market--and a lack of full faith and trust in this equity holding.

I will remain one of those hated in and outers for now.

I have kept up with all the thread posts all along.

Wolf never ceases to amaze me with his energy, and analysis.

Being in energy, I have commissioned one of our fuel cell guys to design a bigger cell to fit on Wolf's...? in order that he never runs out of neurons/electrons/positrons and leptons.

Another way--more aggressive in nature,would be to reverse logic the task--and attach a generator to his...? and power all the west end of Toronto. Cut into OPG's profits!!

This is one iffy overall market guys.

Tom D.