Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred Levine who wrote (40344)	12/2/2000 2:27:22 PM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 70976

Message 14928540 Trilobyte gave a very thorough account of the interview with Morgan. The only thing I heard different (I think) was that the MSDW analyst, Jay Deanha, said the upside in AMAT was $150 in the next 2 - 3 years. I could be wrong. He definitely was giving the message that the downside to $32 (in his mind) was nothing compared with the upside, and that upside was not all that far away. Tony Maria talks to James... starts by James skiing downhill.... Hummmm, chasing his stock? James: Think new technology applications are just beginning. In 2001, looking for 20% growth. Wait and see, won't assess overall demand. Non-commital. Maria: Do you think there's a train wreck coming? Missed estimates? James: We haven't seen customers cancel orders. Never know, but don't expect cancellations. Worldwide demand for chips will provide good opportunities. Maria: What catalyst for stock next 6 months? James: humm.... (shit, will she stop asking me the same darn question, WE ARE NOT GOING BANKRUPT, O.K.) Maria: Inventory correction or end of cycle? James: Usually inventory correction, longterm, demand continues and huge opportunity. Maria: Business slowdown? Growth over last year? James: We've identified significant amount of business. Japanese finalize plans in February time frame. Last year there was hesitation but it turned out to be great year. Whether customers will authorize spending, make determinations more concrete, will have to wait after election... (TALK ABOUT BUSH/GORE, SHE'LL UNDERSTAND THAT!). Maria: thanks, James, for telling us what we new. MSDW analyst. Maria thinks Morgan edged. Analyst thinks significant slowdown first 1/2 of next year. See increasing signs of pushouts. Thinks many chip makers will delay installations. HE HE HE, END OF THE WORLD SCENARIO, I AM AN ANALYST! I WILL DOWNGRADE ON MONDAY... Maria: Think this it is time to buy AMAT? Lot closer to trough than peak levels. Trading about 2x forthcoming sales. Close to 1x historical low. Thinks over 2-3 months, create deep value investor opportunity. Maria: Does it mean buy now? Yes, thinks only 20% downside in small caps. Thinks downside in AMAT is 32$ but upside is 150$ in next few years. HE HE HE, NO ONE EXPECTED ME TO RECOMMEND BUYING THE STOCK...