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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (9467)	12/3/2000 11:53:39 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

"Wouldn't it be great to get a report that encompasses the worldwide stats. I believe this is where the real growth in traffic will come from as long as it's a dialup world." Thread- Take the report totally FWIW as it's Nortel commisioned. They say China alone is adding around 2 million Internet subscribers a month. Can it really be accurate? -MikeM(From Florida) ____________________ Bandwidth demand to grow 300-fold, says RHK By Ray Le Maistre, Total Telecom 22 November 2000-- Demand for bandwidth resulting from increased high-speed Internet access and increased Net access generally outside North America will see the demand for bandwidth from global networks increasing by 300-fold in the next 8 to 10 years. That is the conclusion of a Nortel-commissioned Internet study by California-based consultancy RHK. Capacity demand will also rise as the result of what RHK calls “disruptive technologies and applications that will take advantage of fast and cheap access to the network'. “The current levels of investment in new networks worldwide will expand to meet coming demand for the Optical Internet,” said RHK principal analyst John Ryan, chief author of the study. “The use of the Internet as a basic tool within the global economy suggests a larger role for telecoms services and systems and revenue growth in all sectors,” he continued. “Clearly, the bandwidth capacity in place today is dwarfed by what we will need in a year or two, given the current rates of explosive growth we are seeing.” RHK believes that the adoption of Ethernet-speed access in the home (if you can imagine that) and Gigabit Ethernet access for companies and organizations, coupled with massive leaps in e-business and content management IP traffic, will extend the 200% growth rate in Internet traffic beyond 2010. This growth pattern results in Internet traffic volumes 300 times that experienced today by the end of this decade. A frightening thought? Hard to imagine or comprehend, but if these predictions are accurate this is fantastic news for Nortel, Cisco, Juniper and all other manufacturers of backbone routers and IP networking equipment, not to mention fiber makers such as Corning, Pirelli and Lucent et al. ___________________ RHK Sees Explosive Growth in Bandwidth Demand New Study Forecasts "300-Fold" Boom Driven by High-Speed Internet Access, Disruptive Technologies & Applications in the Next 8-10 Years Boston, Mass. - A new Internet study prepared by leading telecom analysts RHK for Nortel Networks indicates that the demand for bandwidth from global networks could soar 300-fold in the next 8 to 10 years. The boom in bandwidth demand will be driven by increased levels of high-speed Internet access to the home and business, dramatically growing Internet take-up rates outside of North America, and new disruptive technologies and applications that will take advantage of fast and cheap access to the network, the study says. "The current levels of investment in new networks worldwide will expand to meet coming demand for the Optical Internet," said John Ryan, principal analyst at RHK and chief author of the study. "The use of the Internet as a basic tool within the global economy suggests a larger role for telecom services and systems and revenue growth in all sectors. Clearly, the bandwidth capacity in place today is dwarfed by what we will need in a year or two, given the current rates of explosive growth we are seeing," Ryan added. The Third Wave The "third wave" of Internet access, which is what RHK calls the adoption of Ethernet-speed access in the home and gigabit Ethernet access for many enterprises and institutions, will drive even greater demand for bandwidth. An explosion in eBusiness and content management is likely to extend today's robust Internet traffic growth rate of 200 percent per annum well into the decade. This would take traffic to 300 times the size of today's Internet by the decade's end, RHK observes, consistent with the traffic growth called for by deployment of new-generation access technologies. The RHK analysis, entitled "Internet Traffic and Use: Surging Not Slowing," points to the rapid growth in high-speed Internet access to the home-both DSL and cable-as a key driver for surging bandwidth demand. Some 400,000 North American households per month are adopting high-speed access, the study says. With DSL or cable modems running at some ten times the speed of a dial-up modem, these users add directly to demand on the Internet backbone. In addition, other firms have recently found that high-speed users spend 61 percent more time on line than a year ago because the high-speed online experience is far more rewarding. The explosion of demand applies as well to enterprises where service providers are "inundated with requests for new, high-bandwidth applications," reports the study. RHK estimates that by July 2001 there will be some 800 million Internet users worldwide-up from 380 million today. Asian growth is phenomenal: China alone is adding around 2 million Internet subscribers a month, while Korea has 2 million high-speed households already hooked up. "Trans-pacific capacity is consumed as fast as it is installed or made available," says RHK. Behavior Change The RHK study argues that Internet use is likely to grow well beyond most forecasts because the widespread availability of fast, nearly-free Internet access will lead to a change in behavior as people modify their social, business, and entertainment lives to enjoy new services and applications that will be enabled by a fast, free Internet. The study cites Napster* as an example of a disruptive technology that arose from new capabilities of the Internet. At one university studied, bandwidth consumed by Napster rose to 27 percent of all Internet traffic at that university-illustrating the potential of a new service to drive multi-terabit demands for bandwidth. "Napster went from zero to 10 million users in one year," Ryan said. "That's an indication of the amazing power of fast, free bandwidth to alter the way people behave. When people grow used to the fact that they can grab a file from across the country or around the world as easily and quickly as they can from their own hard drive, we will start to see all kinds of new forms of behavior that will take advantage of this bandwidth. We are just at the start of an explosion in the use of networks."