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To: longdong_63 who wrote (7978)12/3/2000 10:15:39 AM
From: Poet  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10876
 
So do I, LD. The cycle guys I read are all seeing a cycle high around January first, which portends a slide for the rest of the month. Time to do some research and thread mining. i'll be back.



To: longdong_63 who wrote (7978)12/3/2000 10:55:39 AM
From: Poet  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10876
 
LD:

From Hahn's site, posted last night. This speaks to your post with regard to mutual funds. You're in good company:

One of the difficult situations for the NASDAQ market was the shareholder redemption of aggressive
growth mutual funds. In addition, mutual funds closed out their fiscal year on Thursday, November 30,
which may have been a termination of tax loss selling. While this is not a guarantee of an immediate
recovery in this MF group, some selling pressure may be relieved. One final thing happens to some
mutual fund shareholders...they may receive a taxable gains statement on funds like this in spite of
experiencing YTD losses in their NAV. Unfortunately, this disagreeable event may cause additional sales.



To: longdong_63 who wrote (7978)12/3/2000 10:56:45 AM
From: bonnuss_in_austin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10876
 
longdong: Thx for zeroing in on this...

...possibility.

Question: assuming many (most?) individual investors via 401Ks, employers' pension plans, etc. didn't sell their MFs at March highs, they wouldn't realize cap gains, correct?

By 'redemption,' you mean selling the fund, correct?

(Are these stupid questions? <g>)

This is a rough place to be ... sell out now and miss rate easing or hang on to dead or dwindling long positions for no rate cut for, what, six? nine? 12? months?

I'm having trouble visualizing anything inbetween these polar extreme, dire possibilities.

'b-i-a'
###



To: longdong_63 who wrote (7978)12/3/2000 11:33:19 AM
From: X Y Zebra  Respond to of 10876
 
. I expect January to be nasty nasty nasty.

Hmmm what timing ! (for me) I will be there sniffing at what fishies the bears let go...

If they truly tank, they may become attractive...

shall see, said the blind man



To: longdong_63 who wrote (7978)12/3/2000 11:38:14 AM
From: TradeOfTheDay  Respond to of 10876
 
I agree.... I think this will indeed be the match to the gasoline when the mutual fund investors recognize not only did they have huge losses BUT.....

not sure too many have tumbled to this fact yet-

I know it's being written about in the press a little... but it always surprises me how few people think it actually means THEIR mutual fund until they get their statement.