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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (7988)	12/3/2000 11:36:03 AM
From: Poet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

Hi t2, Thanks for your insight into the chip sector. I always respect your knowledge. I agree that the market has been indiscriminate in lopping some of these companies at the knees and they're due for a bounce. The coming couple of weeks appear to be filled with market-moving wildcards, however, that may prohibit this from happening for a while. As you know, I'm a short term trader and my reading tells me that the primary movement of the market this week is very likely down. I'm hoping that a change of bias on the part of the FOMC on Dec 19th will help, but that's a few weeks away. Good to see you here again. :)

To: t2 who wrote (7988)	12/3/2000 1:08:08 PM
From: dli	Respond to of 10876

The problem with those statements by communications chip company CEOs is that they are the last ones to find out about a slowdown as they're at the very end of the supply chain. As for MU, I believe that there's still about 50% downside risk. As a commodity product producer MU basically trades off the DRAM spot price and the last time those were at current levels MU was trading around $15 split-adjusted. Add to that the signigicant slowdown in the PC biz and I would not bet the farm on it at current levels. What I have started to dip my toe in is selected semi equips like CMOS. I believe the group as a whole should bottom sometime in Q1 or early Q2 as then upward earnings revisions should kick in in anticipation of the cycle trough. Dave