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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RR who wrote (21662)12/3/2000 11:26:30 AM
From: Jimbo  Respond to of 65232
 
RR - noticed also the increased mention of the R(ecession) word - even Cheney was mentioning it after being question by T. Russert this a.m.. I hope our man AG is listening -- it will be interesting to hear what he says on Tuesday !



To: RR who wrote (21662)12/3/2000 11:32:42 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
since we talked in Sept, the Euro has risen as we expected
from roughly 82 to about 87 now
we liked the long Euro futures contract
that contract is probably up 250-350%

yes, our too strong USdollar has hurt foreign economies
Greenspan's too high interest has resulted in too strong US$

now I read of signs that Asian economies are stalling badly

Greenspan has begun to reproduce the Asian Meltdown
I doubt it will melt down, but a recession in Asia is likely in scattered countries
we already have flat growth in Europe

yes, close to bottom in US stocks, esp Naz
any post-election bounce will likely bring about more retests
any Fed move to neutal bounce will likely be followed by retests also

more warnings are coming, but also more assurances
I expect forward guidance in the next 3-5 weeks to be very cautious
many more downwaves coming from reduced expectations
but downwaves might only retouch old lows

I see Q1 as dangerous as hell upcoming
exports to foreign customers will be waning
our currency is strong, their economies are weakening
it is a nobrainer
also, our economy is not done slowing
the GDP of 5.5% in Q2 was followed by 2.4% in Q3
that is MUCH MUCH greater an effect from Fed hitting the brakes, than desired
Greenspan is probably surprised we slowed that markedly

I want to participate in the post-election bounce
not getting greedy here

Gore Team is getting absolutely nowhere in Tallhassy
but the Nassau Absentee case scares me

/ jim



To: RR who wrote (21662)12/3/2000 2:09:50 PM
From: RR  Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 65232
 
Have had some questions how I view things so positively most all of the time. I've written about my attitude in the past as it relates to investing, but I'll go a bit further about my view of life in general.

My positive attitude about investing starts with my positive attitude in life. I get up every day with an attitude that I am going to have a great day, regardless of the bad things facing me.

It starts with making a conscious decision that I am going to have a good day. I will be productive. I will accomplish something. I will seize the opportunities of life presented. I will have fun. I will work hard. I will win. Granted, it is difficult to do sometimes for I have bad days just like everyone else. However, I still start with that affirmative decision to be that way. I leave every day with a smile on my face and try my best when I walk in that door at the end of the day to greet my family with the same smile on my face that I left with in the morning.

How I view life's situations is paramount to success. I am the one that decides my attitude, nobody else. I control how I act. Consequently, I elect to be self-confident, happy, positive, and forward thinking every day. That's why oftentimes I say on here that where some see bad things happen in the market, I see opportunity present itself. I seek out that side of things. I'm an optimist. I try to be positive, reinforcing and hopeful without being unrealistic.

Back in my corporate America days, I use to be around a lot of high level executives. They were the movers and shakers, so to speak. I've been around a bunch of those types from the Board rooms to quite personal situations. I found that they had similar views. They had a positive outlook on life in general and great confidence. Some important traits of them being winners were their profound belief they would not fail, their continued view of accomplishing goals by taking the high road, a strong work ethic, and a day after day positive outlook on life. It was quite impacting being around people like that.

On the other side of the fence, I have friends that are poor as dirt but richer in life than many who have money. While they may not have many material things, they have a healthy and superior attitude about life. They are thankful for what they do have and exhibit a positive outlook to others. They're fun to be around. Some of those folks are my best friends today. Also, I have known folks with horrible health problems, some who could hardly get out of bed, that had a better outlook on life than those who had their health. Attitude..... attitude...... attitude.....

I demand success from myself each day. Failure is not in the equation of life for me. I also look for the good things, not the bad. I seek opportunities. I'm disciplined to those principles. I take that attitude with me in anything I do, including investing. It starts with me. I'm the one that makes that decision.

RR