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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (63626)	12/3/2000 7:09:03 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Gary, you posted last week based on Elliot Wave theory that after a decline to the 2700 area on the Naz, we would rally strongly above the 3,000 level. Which do you now believe (the Elliot Wave interpretation or today's post of a possible 50% retracement)? Steve D.

To: Gary Burton who wrote (63626)	12/3/2000 9:20:38 PM
From: da_cheif™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

re:prechters group...lets add these..this weekends Barrons...Alan Abelson.."While we are convinced we are in the early stages of a secular bear market.." Richard Russell ".....brutal primary bear market in US stocks has entered the second and usually longest of three psychological phases. And before the downturn is over, perhaps not until 2005, the Dow Jones Industrial Average which late last week was around 10400 could tumble all the way to 3000 4000,..."....BTW Russell wont even be even with his first bear market call at that level....Then Russell goes on to say "I could be jumping the gun....it wouldnt surprise met to see the djia drop to 3000.4000".....That was the most hilarious thing he said....Can any body tell me ever when Russell called this a primary bull market...well the answer is never....So while all this is going on the dj 65 composite is within a stones throw of historic highs.... every fall a correction takes place and each fall the primary markets low is higher than the previous falls....This time it got to HARRY DENT....hes bearish....could you ever imagine in your wildest dreams that after a six fold increase in the dow that it would not produce the expected euphoria but such a clamoring of bearishness...I remember when the Biotechs crashed...the bears said the US market was finished...now the Techs get smashed and the Bio Techs are now coming back...so you see all it is is a huge healthy rotation....saw the same thing in 91...the market went sideways for a year...then in dec got very ugly then exploded....Again in this weeks barrons...more bearishness...Sub Headline in Market Watch section..."Its a bear market; It is so much easier now to get hurt in it than to be helped by it". The naz is clearly in a 3 wave decline which may or may not have ended...if 2500 breaks 2300 shud hold like a rock for maybe a nano second before it turns up fast and furious.....Meanwhile dow component INTEL has got a very bullish 3 gap play going for it with 100 as the target....Hong kong appears to have completed 5 waves down....and the dollar...the decline if it continues and we wont know till the euro completes five waves up..should be signaling the next leg up in gold bullion...notice the goldman sacs pm index....closed last years gap to the penny which was also the 75% retracement and turned up hard .....equity put call ratios have been through the roof yet the dows low was in october....the uptrends in the sp400 midcap and 600 small cap remains intact from the 98 low...just bring up a weekly chart of the 400 micap...And it should not be lost on us that the vast majority of timers tracked by timer digest are bearish....they as a group have never called a top.....never....so you see while everybody is fearfull I see the classic signs of the start of another blast off in the making...the lower the naz goes the better....the epicenter of primary wave three lies before us for the simple reason that it hasnt occured yet....the epicenter of primary wave three will do wat hasnt been done yet and that is to remove the words mania and bubble from everybodies vocabulary....something which we know hasnt happend yet....the epicenter of primary wave three will be identified quite simply....remember a third wave up is more powerfull than the 2nd wave which preceded it...thus the one day 20 percent deline in 1987 has yet to spawn a like day on the upside...which means its still ahead of us....So here we are all the proven genuises finally getting it right....prechter,russell,granville,eliades,abelson,,,etc etc....ya right.....