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To: Cal Gary who wrote (6041)12/4/2000 6:21:35 AM
From: Mark Bartlett  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
CalGary,

<<I am assuming we are talking about the time period from the friday before the NR and this past week's trading.>>

Nope - I am talking about when we gapped down aftet the H/C announcement.

MB



To: Cal Gary who wrote (6041)12/4/2000 12:37:05 PM
From: Joe Krupa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Hi CalGary et al.

Anyone noticed that as TD stopped selling big in the middle of last week, that they transitioned to a big buyer for the past few days. In fact, they are the largest gross buyer today @ +85,000 by noon today -- I believe they might also have been on Friday (not sure though). I will check the numbers this afternoon and post them to back up my claim.

We are usually very quick to assume that TD is retail most often. Even weeks into the recent TD selling, many assumed that it might be retail margin and panic selling. Thus, it is just as possible that the recent buying by TD is also not retail. Adding to this possibility is the size of some of the TD trades, including today.

Now to my theory. Tax law in Canada, as I understand it, has a 30 day moratorium on buying a stock sold for tax loss purposes. In other words, after you sell to claim a capital loss, you must wait 30 days to buy it back without null and voiding the tax benefit.

TD initiated the institutional sell order in mid-October, and only finished at the end of November. That's about 45 days - ie. more than 30 days since the selling started. Now, my lack of knowledge in this area would lead me to assume that the 30 day period starts at the time of the last share sold from the particular account, to the time a single share is bought back in that same account. However, might it be possible that the 30 day period might work on a first out-first in basis. In other words, if you buy back the first 1000 you sell, 30 days later (even if you only sold the last 1000 yesterday), would it still qualify for the tax loss? Another scenario might see the shares being sold from various TD accounts to ensure that the shares sold in week 1 of the dump can be bought back in week 5.

Let's assume one of the above scenarios might be true and that TD can start buying again. It could account for some of the recent buying action by TD. I know many speculated that the TD selling was likely tax loss selling and that TD could be setting up to be a big buyer 30 days later. It just may be possible that the 30 days could pass shorter than most thought!

If anyone can shed some light on the possible accounting scenarios here, I would very much appreciate your comments.

Just some lunch hour ruminations,

Joe



To: Cal Gary who wrote (6041)12/4/2000 5:20:05 PM
From: Joe Krupa  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 14101
 
CalGary, Mark, Wolf, others,

I look forward to comment from you guys on the candlestick formation we put in today. Wolf, you mentioned, on SH, that the doji we saw today was the completion of a not so positive pattern. While technically you may be right, I saw the price action as the unfolding of the following events:

1) Bullish close on Friday carried through to gap open
2) Gap was too high and too fast, and was quickly sold in to. Needed to see if the overbought indicators were correct.
3) Sell momentum took it through Friday's close
4) Support at the top of Friday's gap was tested successfully and the price rallied back.
5) Bulk of subsequent trading above Friday's close at $7.90-$8.00
6) Continued bullishness toward day end carrying momentum through to the close, and after hours (16,000 A.H.)
7) We shook off 1/2 million shares of selling pressure below the open price, which should bode well for another gap up tomorrow.

Would love comments, on what logic tells me is a positive price action.

Joe