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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (40400)	12/4/2000 12:47:33 PM
From: Demosthenes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Business Wire - December 04, 2000 06:00 Jump to first matched term SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 4, 2000--Worldwide sales of semiconductors were up 39.4% from a year ago to a record $18.66 billion in October 2000, reported the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today. "Sales were strong in all geographic markets and most product sectors," said George Scalise, president of the SIA. "Sectors that continue to report record sales include Flash, Standard Cells, Analog, Microprocessors, and Field Programmable Logic which are currently driving the personal computer and consumer markets, along with the wired and wireless communications revolution." The Japanese market grew 47.4% and the Asia/Pacific market 35.2%. The Americas market rose 41.3% and the European market 33.2%. Scalise said that for 2000, the chip industry remained on-track for an annual growth rate of 37.1% over 1999, and for the first time, will reach an industry sales record that is expected to exceed $200 billion. From its beginning in the 1950s, the semiconductor industry has been characterized by a four-year cycle, sporadically modified by unexpected economic factors. The semiconductor industry has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% over the past 40 years. The SIA's Global Sales Report (GSR) is a three-month moving average of sales activity. The GSR is tabulated by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization, which represents about 70 companies. The moving average is a mathematical smoothing technique that mitigates variations due to companies' monthly financial calendars. About the SIA The SIA is the leading voice for the semiconductor industry and has represented U.S.-based manufacturers since 1977. SIA member companies comprise more than 90% of U.S.-based semiconductor production. Collectively, the chip industry employs a domestic workforce of 284,000 people. More information about the SIA can be found at www.semichips.org. October, 2000 Billions Month-to-Month Sales Market Last Month Current Month % Change Americas 5.89 5.91 0.3% Europe 3.62 3.79 4.8% Japan 4.21 4.36 3.5% Asia Pacific 4.70 4.60 -2.1% Total 18.42 18.66 1.3% Year-to-Year Sales Market Last Year Current Month % Change Americas 4.18 5.91 41.3% Europe 2.84 3.79 33.2%Japan 2.96 4.36 47.4% Asia Pacific 3.40 4.60 35.2% Total 13.39 18.66 39.4% Three-Month-Moving Average Sales Market Last 3 Months Current 3 Months % Change Americas 5.54 5.91 6.7% Europe 3.43 3.79 10.4% Japan 3.88 4.36 12.2% Asia Pacific 4.42 4.60 4.1% Total 17.27 18.66 8.0% CONTACT: Semiconductor Industry Association Molly Marr/Doug Andrey, 408/436-6600 mmarr_sia@attglobal.net dandrey_sia@attglobal.net or VCPR, inc. Steve Kaufman/Denny Brisley, 650/340-6766 skaufman@vcpr.com dbrisley@vcpr.com

To: Gottfried who wrote (40400)	12/4/2000 4:40:56 PM
From: daryll40	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I accept that Yardeni might have a good model for stock market evaluation. I was only pointing out that he also had a "model" for evaluating the Y2K (non) problem. In other words, his lack of credibility in one are of modeling AT LEAST questions his ability to create accurate models in another area. Longer term I do think that Yardeni has had a decent track record, as he was among the first to call a boom in the savings rate due to baby boomers. Daryll40