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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (399)	12/4/2000 7:31:22 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12410

Hi Chip, What's Your Take going forward for bonds..? I'm flattered that you would ask, and I'm flatter than a Kansas wheat field as to my views of the bond market. I look everywhere, hither and yon to seek insight. Dear Ms. Baum is distracted by the dot.bombs. The Economist by the banana republic attached to Georgia: economist.com If there is only one bit of advice I can give you, read the "Inaugural Speech" draft. There you will find guidance as to the bond market. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Now, I'm not saying that the 850 basis point spread between corporate hi-yield and Treasuries isn't troubling. But I think that unless the Fed relents pronto that the spread can easily exceed 1000 bp by Christmas. Particularly if retail sales figures come in weak. I'd love to hear what Richard Medley has to say about bonds right now. Anyone on the thread privy to his declarations through Medley Advisors? You may recall Mr. Medley to be the chap to introduce CNBC viewers to the term "The Thrilla In Vanilla", in comments about the election on Nov. 8. Or, possibly you recall him as a co-author on the whimsically entitled: "The American Stock Market as A Financial Risk" foreignrelations.org But, I don't know what he's done for us lately. As far as the triggering event to put me into a foul mood regarding the parlous state of the global bond market, I'd say it was an Economist article entitled "Is the End in Sight": economist.com Now, I'm lately, like as in this afternoon, getting wind, of uncertain aroma, that the Fed may make a pre-emptive move at the December meeting. This would be welcomed in my neighborhood, in spite of the likely impact on local road traffic, which is sparse enough, but seemingly threatened with non-existence if things keep going on the Perfect Storm track of the last several weeks. But, that clearly overstates the risk. For surely, President Bush knows exactly what has to be done to fix everything. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ On a separate note. You recently published on the thread a very interesting viewpoint as to the future prospects for the Japanese markets. I found some information today in a most unusual venue that you would be interested in. It was a re-broadcast of a Chatauqua Lecture by Dr. H.J. deBlij, entitled "Changing Climate in a Shrinking World". opb.org Dr. deBlij, a geographer by trade, spoke of the demographics of Japan. Currently the population is 127 million. It is expected to peak at 128 million in 2007. Then it goes into decline, and will stabilize around 60 million by 2050, according to current fertility rate extrapolations. In 2005, there will be 2.2 Japanese workers for each retiree. In 2020, there will be 4 retirees for each worker. In 2050, there will be 8 retirees for each worker. Clearly, anyone expecting or hoping for recovery of the Japanese economy is clueless as to what will soon be happening in that nation. As deBrij so aptly puts it, demography is fate. BTW, deBrij rather brilliantly argues that the current hand-wringing over global warming is misplaced. That our human impact on the phenomenon can amount to no more than 5 percent of the entire effect, and that indeed, it is an anomaly in an over-all pattern of global cooling which will re-assert itself sometime later in the century. This fellow doesn't think in small terms. :) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Re: ``It's an economy that's going to surprise people on the weaker side. We've been used to everything being so perfect and so strong,'' said David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey G. Lanston and Co. in New York. This comment, from the article you cited, sums up pretty succinctly how I view the near term future. Financial markets seem forever prone to periods of relative order followed by waves of anarchic forces no one can control. We tipped over in the summer. Best, Ray :)