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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (143)	12/4/2000 3:05:27 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9255

Tero, << You think the quad-modes of AT&T are actually selling?? >> I actually do. I see a lot of them and I see people (businessmen) actually using them, particularly the Mitsubishi. Actually reading e-mail (not necessarrily responding). This despite very limited CDPD coverage. When queried they say they like the service. Amazes me. << You're hotter than Lynette >> She's better (looking) <g>, and she called the AT&T shot. I am waiting to here what Gilder has to say. << Sprint was still ahead of AT&T in sub addition growth and had a lower churn rate. The positions flipped spookily just after Sprint launched its mobile internet drive. It could be a coincidence, though. >> Coincidence, IMO, relative to data. AWS is much maligned for capacity. TDMA is blamed (thats not all wrong). Really their problems were more AMPS, capacity, build out related, and their Digital One Rate plan was too successful, too fast. They have been fixing things in the background. Less fast busys and less dropped calls. Still not in Verizon's class though. Meantime Sprint PCS keeps getting better but coverage not in a league with Verizon or AWS for the business traveller. Leads to churn. That is my take. << It does look like Samsung and Kyocera plummeted in US handset market share just after they had introduced an all-WAP CDMA line-up. Another coincidence? I don't know; there could be a trend here. And I don't think it's related to WAP; more likely to the user experience of circuit-switched mobile data. >> Not sure either. I know Kyocera has limited selection at Verizon. New tri-mode is VERY plastic. My local Verizon outlet pushing Motorola still, and the Audiovox CDM 9000 (which I use and rate 'fair" with good features and exceptional battery life but lousy accessories.). When the new non-wap Nokia came in they were pushing it. Last week they were not, commenting to customers it did not do data, and when I queried a rep about customer feedback he just shrugged. Interesting thing here (US), is nobody (consumers or sales reps) use the term WAP. << more likely to the user experience of circuit-switched mobile data >> Yes. That's part of it, but the MMI just not well suited to data yet. Too many key strokes on too small a display for satisfaction, IMO. - Eric -

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (143)	8/10/2002 12:19:34 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9255

Preliminary Mobile Wireless Technology Scorecard 2002 H1 CDG has not yet posted Q2 ending subscriber counts 2002. However ... ... it appears that after trailing both GSM & TDMA for the last 2 calendar years that CDMA may once again lay claim to being the "fastest growing technology". This could change as TDMA subs start to convert to GSM, but CDMA growth in China could offset that. I'll do a final tally when all Q2 numbers are in. GSM Subscribers (Millions) YOY Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 02 Growth Total GSM Subscribers 455.1 550.1 646.5 709.0 28.9% 6 months Net Sub Adds - 95.0 96.0 62.5 - 12 month Net Sub Adds - - 191.4 158.9 - For the 10 month period ending April 2002, EMC shows CDMA growing faster than either than TDMA or GSM. *10 months (end June 01 to end April 02) per EMC (not CDG)** 6/01 Sub Net Adds % Growth CAGR Base 10 mo. 10 mo. % CDMA 96.8 26.6m 27.5% 33.82% TDMA 80.9 19.8m 24.5% 30.05% GSM 550.1m 134.1m 24.4% 29.92% * For the 12 month period ending March 2002 CDG's official numbers show CDMA growing by 29.815 million subs (from 90.4 million to 120.2 million) or 33% YOY. For the 13 month period ending April 2002 GSMA's official numbers show GSM growing by 180.7 million subs (from 503.5 million to 684.2 million) or 35.9% or 32.7% CAGR. Using GSMA's June end GSM subscriber count (from EMC) and Matt Hoffman's June end worldwide subscriber count (1.0306 billion), GSM has 68.2% of worldwide subs a slight increase from 2001 end when GSM was 67.7% of all subs and 71.1% of digital subs. Using GSMA's April end GSM subscriber count (from EMC) GSM had 68.1% of worldwide subs a slight increase from 2001 end when GSM was 67.7% of all subs and 70.7% of digital subs, a slight decrease from 71.1% at year end 2001. See this previous post for an analysis of subscriber growth by technology for the years 2000 & 2001 when CDMA trailed both GSM & TDMA in rate of growth: Message 17392258 - Eric -