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To: Eric L who wrote (146)	12/4/2000 4:24:12 PM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 9255

Limited, regional backing has never worked as a mobile phone sales strategy. I don't see how shipping 100 000 units of a CDPD model can be profitable to Mitsubishi; or have an ARPU effect on AT&T. Even slight fluctuations in two-way messaging or ringtone traffic in multi-million-selling phones will dwarf the CDPD revenue. I seriously doubt AT&T can stay committed to CDPD along with GSM/GPRS. It's a dead end - the coverage of GPRS is going to be far wider and AT&T is going to have to justify the cost of the GSM/GPRS overlay. It can't do that if it tries to pitch CDPD to high-end users - that's the early GPRS target market. There's no international roaming for CDPD either - it doesn't fit the high-end market. If AT&T wants to emphasize GSM/GPRS, it will start gradually pulling support from CDPD as the GPRS launch nears. And if that happens, companies that invested in CDPD product development will never recoup their R&D expenditure. Worse than that - they may have squandered the chance of becoming a GSM/GPRS launch contractor by going the CDPD route. This is what Mitsubishi seems to have done. Siemens didn't support CDPD - but it did become AT&T's launch vendor for the GSM/GPRS initiative. Tero