Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John who wrote (924)	12/4/2000 5:11:19 PM
From: bob wallace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

JOhn well, I just finished listening to Bushes unmitigated legal victory, and I assume that we will indeed have a bit of a rally here - but I do beleive that it will be a short one - why? just look at the comapnies that warned tonight: fundamentals are lousy, and personally I do not believe that the election really means all that much to the market (or anyone other than Gore or Bush for that matter) what I said about the OTC fund was this: use the OTC numbers in AIM, the smaller % changes will result in slower, smaller AIM buys and sells, buit by buying UOPIX rather than OTC shares, you will (theoretically) take advantage of UOPIX's larger moves you evidently are advancing the idea by actually trading OTC shares on the downside - I'd like to see how tht works... Bob

To: John who wrote (924)	12/4/2000 11:59:36 PM
From: Todd Reichardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

Hi John, By going into into the 1 beta OTC fund you would be scaling back more slowly than AIM would have you scale back. I think you could do roughly the same thing by simply selling only 1/3 of the shares that AIM asks you to sell. 1.5 NDX times 2/3 = 1 NDX, I said roughly because the daily compounding will make it different. By doing this (either the 1/3 sale or the straight transfer of proceeds from sales to the 1 beta fund)would cause your new strategy to have a more bullish bias than a straight AIM. The NDX data available for backtesting will likely show that this is a good modification, because, in general, buying (or not selling) the NDX over the past 14 years or so has been a good thing to do. I suspect you're strategy over the last 10-12 months would have done (much?) worse than AIM. Backtesting is good, but restricting the data you use to the available NDX data will likely give you a system that outperforms AIM when the underlying is in a long term up trend. That may be a big given for the NDX going forward. Todd