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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich1 who wrote (62422)	12/5/2000 6:14:05 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Hello Rich... It means the first part of the downside correction that began in March is now over. We began the second part of the correction from last Thursday's lows, which is a corrective up move to this first leg down in the correction. In other words, this is a last chance to sell rally, but it could and should be enormous. Longer term, the read concludes, much like Zeev, that the major indices will be locked in a range that could span from 920 to 1700 on the SPX, much like the 66-82 period was range bound with intervening bull & bear markets. Index fund holders and many mutual fund holders will do well to try to nail this rally's peak and move into cash until the indices move back to the low end of the range. But many individual stocks will rack up major gains during this time, just as many did from 66-82. The Rmbs outlook remains the same as I've laid out in this post Message 14694471. One key aspect of that post focuses on identifying the end of a 5 wave down move off the 10/5/00 high. That marked the beginning of wave C of 4, and it looks like wave C is following the ending diagonal format, a common variation of a 5 wave impulse move. In an ending diagonal, you still have 5 waves, but each of the 5 waves is composed of 3 waves instead of the normal 5. From the 10/5 peak, we see wave "a" that completed on 10/13, wave "b" completed on 10/19, and "c" ended at the 10/31 low, finishing the 1st of 5 waves. Wave 2 then rallied the stock with a of 2 ending at 11/9's high, b of 2 on 11/13's low, and c of 2 on 11/15's high, completing Wave 2. Wave 3 then proceeded lower to see "a" complete at 11/22's low, "b" ended at 11/27's high, then "c" completed on 11/30's low, finishing wave 3. Wave 3's MUST go beyond the end of wave 1, which is why it barely nicked 10/31's low here. Wave 4 has thus far seen wave "a" complete at 12/1's high, "b" complete at 12'4's lows, and now "c" is in progress, and soon to complete. It may try to stretch into the trendline connecting the 10/5 high with the 11/15 high, that line currently at 58 or so. Wave 4 should not break 64. Once this wave 4 is concluded, wave rules require the stock to retrace 80% of the wave 4 move, with a good probability that the trendline connecting the ends of wave 1(10/31's low) and wave 3(11/30's low)will be pierced. That trendline currently rests at 36.25, and descends at a rate of about .01 per day (i.e. the trendline is almost flat). A buy under that trendline should prove to be the best l-t RMBS entry point unless you bought the I.P.O., which you no doubt did you lucky devil! <g> That point will mark the end of this wave 4 correction and the beginning of the mega 5th wave that will hopefully rival QCOM's 5th in terms of % move. The post linked gives the specifics on how large that 5th might be, so I won't repeat here. Best wishes, BRH P.S. Have now rebuilt the position in this stock to 75% of its 6/1 size, and will double its size below 37.