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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shaw who wrote (1242)	12/6/2000 10:23:01 AM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2293

Check out this article about Cisco, the all optical network, and how vendors are so desperate to get the network built out now. totaltele.com The big point though, is this network standard Cisco is trying to develop, no matter whose standard prevails it pretty much involves AVNX or the whole thing pretty much stops working, or at least works a lot less well. Tinker

To: Shaw who wrote (1242)	12/6/2000 12:15:05 PM
From: Shaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

Interesting that Avanex is doing better than its peers this morning. I don't know the reason, but one positive, that is pertinent, is the fact that Avanex's approach to increasing band width is cost saving. Avanex's approach eliminates the need for expensive switches and still manages to provide more band width than anyone else's gear. Sounds like a good fit for telecoms that, have to continue the build out, and up grade on tight bugets, or get left behind, while others continue to build out state of the art networks. Don't feel too sorry for these telecoms, in the future I can forsee, that they will be charging us for services, that are still too primitive, to charge for now. I have not loaded up in here, and at this point I don't plan to invest anymore than 4% of my portfolio in this company.Presently I have invested less than 2%. But I continue to put the time into following Avanex and the networking sector, because the creation of this high tech network platform is key, for the further growth of the world economy. I believe investors have to exercise patients in here. Its all about earnings and execution from here on out. The honey moon period is over. I didn't even get actively involved in this market for the past 2 1/2+ years, except indirectly through a long term professionaly managed account. Based on past investing experience in the early 90s, I exspected the dot com situation to blow up at some point, and I didn't have time to follow such a violital sector. When the market broke down last April I jumped in. In one half hour I reopened a past account and bought csco, emc,jdsu, and orlc. Five hours later, I had an average 8+ point gain across the board, on all my positions. For two weeks I made money, then I got caught with margin in some secondary positions, that I held too long, as the market traded down, the last third, of its down ward move. At that time I had to dig deep and decide whether to weather the storm carrying some margin. (Keep in mind these were trading plays, and represented a small portion of my long term portfolio.) The point is though, I had to make a call on where I thought the overall market was going. I dug deep and opened up my creative side. I came away with a vision of what was the driving force behind market at that time, the high tech broadband infrastructure build out. Since then I have felt my way around in this trend, and somehow ended up running into Avanex, I think because of the corious way it traded in its sector. I got the investors packet from the co. and read the Gilder news letter enclosed. I was moved by Gilder's perspective, and his description of Dr. Simon Cao's vision for the build out of the optical network. Anyway in April when the market started to moved down the last third, and my back was against the wall and I posted my out look on Silicon Investor, on the Point and Figure thread. The post by Tommy Dorsey, the point and figure technician, was titled "Is it time to hold or sell." I countered his well formed post. He was right the market continued down another third, but I was right because the strong ongoing technology infrastucture upgrade trend that I focused on, with in a month and a half had made all my underwater margin positions profitable. What I saw then, has come to fruition. The infrastructure stocks for the 21 century have continued to lead the way, until the recent valuation adjustment. In other posts, around that time I reminded people that the Fed can loosen as well as tighten. We have come full circle. I think think we have been really lucky to have such an orderly adjustment to high tech valuations. The market is not forcasting the end of the world. In my mind it is mystical, the way the extended political transition has, facilitated a transition to more reasonable valuations. The reajustment in the market valuations, has created a much firmer base for the new Adminstration to build on. Patients is the key, and investing in small enough amounts, that you can hold for the long term, with minimal stress.