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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techanalyst1 who wrote (1043)	12/6/2000 5:15:38 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

Hi ta1, Retirement is 30+ years away and the intraday moves are irrelevant. To you, yes. To most of the players in this market, I'd say it's a different view. One only need look to other technologies that have come and gone to realize that in the hypercompetitive world of high tech, that today's winner is almost guaranteed to be overtaken by events within a decade. In other words, the development of the broadband internetwork is the hot business today, but in 1990, it was the PC that was the focus of all the players. Now look at where APPL, CPQ, and some of the other box makers of that year are trading. Based on historical patterns, I would give the odds of AMCC being an ascendant technology company in 2030 at about 1:20. This has been the pattern for a very long time. Maybe this time it is different, maybe AMCC will have the staying power of an INTC. But one must realize that INTC's success is among the rarest of occurances in American business. And, yes, I still think management is superb at AMCC and that they will be among the stars in the next 6 quarters. No question in my mind. The only question is how big a pie they are taking a slice of. Frankly, I think that we will soon see the likes of RHK, Cahners In-Stat, Forrester(sp?) and others reeling in their projections on industry growth. And it wouldn't be the first time. In fact, it's the norm. Best, Ray