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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (21650)	12/6/2000 1:44:35 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Dan, <When do you really think Intel will have the output from a significant number of .13 wafers available for sale? > Intel can produce significant amounts of P4 on 0.18 fabs especially in this low-demand environment. <With the earliest possible production wafer starts in late H1, I don't see market moving output available for sale until early 2002. > Let's see how well your vision holds. <Until then, Intel has a P4 with a manufacturing cost that is triple that of Athlon/Palamino. So AMD can make a 50% margin selling CPUs at Intel's raw manufacturing cost.> So? <Meanwhile, the contest with significance (e.g. volume) is between P3 and Athlon, and Athlon substantially outclasses P3 in performance with a small manufacturing cost penalty. Intel knows this, and this is why Intel's roadmaps all show the first use of .13 FAB space allocated to P3, not P4.> Flawed logic. New process is almost always brought-up on established products. <With AMD and Intel moving to .13 in roughly the same time frame, and AMD gaining the benefit of low K SOI as well, things still look just fine for AMD. > Intel has a manufacturable 0.13 NOW although it is currently going through exhaustive qualification, AMD doesn't. There is a 6 month lag or more. <The are also some indications that the lack of low K SOI may doom Intel's first iteration of .13 to irrelevance.> What indications are these? <We'll wait and see how that turns out. Meanwhile, both companies have many chances to miss deadlines - execution is the key. The last year and a half has been the story of AMD executing a little better than Intel. Will that continue?> For all of 2000, AMD did better on chips and terribly on the platform. The net result was that AMD lost a huge lead. AMD gotto do better in 2001 to continue to make any significant gains. Chuck

To: Dan3 who wrote (21650)	12/7/2000 12:39:07 AM
From: THE WATSONYOUTH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

With AMD and Intel moving to .13 in roughly the same time frame, and AMD gaining the benefit of low K SOI as well, things still look just fine for AMD. The are also some indications that the lack of low K SOI may doom Intel's first iteration of .13 to irrelevance. It is not clear to me that AMD will have a true low K dielectric with their .13um process. Also, I believe you grossly over estimate the performance advantage of SOI and under estimate its disadvantages. Finally, I am familiar enough with Intel's .13um bulk process to say that it is OUTSTANDING. If AMD gains an advantage over Intel, I believe it will be on the basis of a superior design.... NOT a higher performing process. THE WATSONYOUTH