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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (63823)	12/6/2000 1:57:17 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Agree that the Aaron Task/TSCM analysis of the COT report seemed questionable - IMO rather confused and self-contradictory. The underlying truth may be that the major COT sell signal already occurred long ago, and that its NEXT signal is more likely to be a buy. The sell would seem still to be in effect, however, and overanticipating the buy could be a big mistake. It's also worth keeping in mind that, just as the Commercial Hedgers aren't thought to gamble, they're also not short-termers. Though we tend to mythologize the "big boys," as in our discussion of the COT and NDX the other day, recent analysis I've read of their position on the NDX (last issue of The Bullish Review) reinforces the impression that they are not perfect market-timers. They may indeed get relatively overextended - it's just that over time you'll only rarely find them on the wrong side of any major trend for very long, and that trading systems based on divergences between their positions and those of small-timers like us have high percentage (i.e., very good but imperfect) track records. In any event, it'll be interesting to see what the next reports reveal.