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To: wlheatmoon who wrote (2050)	12/6/2000 4:12:50 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 2850

good post Mike, Technological innovation and a bull market,create all kind of new tech companies, 1 or 2 companies and technologies work, the rest fall by the wayside, after the initial bull market. Currently there are still many companies in tech that have monsterous declines still in front of them. John

To: wlheatmoon who wrote (2050)	12/7/2000 1:18:17 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 2850

Mike, It is true that there is a speculative nature to FTTH. I don't believe that you will see meaningful deployment of FTTH for 18 to 24 months. Even then, I suspect that you will see a phased approach where multitenant buildings will be hit first and then you will see FTTC (C = Curb) and eventually it will be brought into the home. The main issue is that it costs a lot of freakin money to dig up streets to lay fiber (or copper). But at this point, many of the ILECs are running out of copper pairs under the street anyway and would have to pull more copper if they were to meet the demand (how many connections do you have to your home now? more than one phone line? Fax? Data/DSL/ISDN?). If they would have to dig up the streets to lay copper, they might as well lay some fiber. And DSL wasn't really the failure that it seems, just the implementation by the CLECs. Trust me, the DSL equipment vendors have made money and will for a couple more years. As far as wireless broadband for the last mile. I see it as more of a niche solution, but there is a potential for some money to be made. Sprint is deploying wireless broadband to the home in certain areas using CAMPs equipment. Dana Johnson on the Piffer OT thread has the service and is very satisfied.