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To: isopatch who wrote (80956)	12/7/2000 3:02:38 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 95453

isopatch, I glanced at the article. I think it boils down to this: growth cannot increase without limits. It has to slow down for a while or even stall temporarily before taking off again. Since the market rewards nothing but growth, the market must also slow or reverse for a while. There's a whole industry of publications out there making a living out of wringing their hands over these natural events. And we dutifully read them and act in ways that magnify the 'problem'. BTW, I am probably the last person here to notice that the weekly OSX has a left shoulder and a head. Will the right shoulder show up? stockcharts.com[L,A]WACLYYMY[PB50!B200][VC60][IUB14!LA12,26,9] If it shows up, it should go to about 125. Gottfried

To: isopatch who wrote (80956)	12/7/2000 9:10:18 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Iso, thanks for the post. Ok, so now MOT cuts it's 4th qtr estimates in half: biz.yahoo.com Yet another indication that things are slowing faster than most had thought. Your post confirmed it. Just more bricks in the wall. Still, the post contained hard data, the kind that cannot be ignored or minimized. The problem here is that too many are still being "confused" by labor stats. Employment numbers were, are, and always will be the quintessential lagging indicator. The bond market is a leading indicator to the nth degree. And when it talks Greenspan listens: finance.yahoo.com^TYX&d=3m The continuing thunderous rally here in bonds speaks louder that almost any indicator in the market right now. The risks to the economy have definitely shifted from inflation to deflation. The job numbers will follow rates. The US probably won't see the big job cuts until after January. After Christmas we will be looking at the economic equivalent of the Sahara desert. This is when you see the big 50 maybe even a 75 basis point fed reduction in short term rates. A 25 basis point reduction in December would probably have an outsized positive effect as it will have indicated that the fed has begun the process much earlier than expected. Greenspan has seen all this and knows what it means, the bond market has given him the green light. I expect he will have to reverse every single rate hike he made and then some. So the $64,000 question is are we looking at "just another recession" that will respond to lower rates or will debt burdens send us into something far worse? I hold to the former. But then, I am an optimist! ;o} The chief reason for my optimism revolves around the phenomenal influx of immigrants the US posted during the '90's. The largest in it's history. It is extremely rare that the US has descended into a depression (there I said it! The "D" word<g>) immediately after such massive immigration waves. After the fed lowers rates, consumption will resume and it will be back to the boom. How long this process takes is the only question in my mind. My "Perfect Storm" scenario was dependent on a major energy crises that would have kept the fed from lowering and waiting until the recession was in full flower, like in '74. It is now appearing that that event will, thankfully, not transpire. This is clearly indicated by the retreat of oil prices and bond market rally. Instead, we seem to have a minor disturbance via NG prices and not a major crises. I am not suggesting that NG prices are irrelevant, they will contribute to the economic slowdown. Alone, however, they do not constitute a crises. To those who think this post is "off topic" kindly consider the following analogy: Remember "Dirty Harry"? Allow me to paraphrase. "This here's a recession you're lookin' at - the most powerful oil demand killer in the world. Now you have to ask yourself one question: 'Do I want to hold oil stocks just before a recession?' - Well doooo ya" Imo most investors have answered that question already. There will be another up-cycle in energy issues. Imo I don't think we get a bust of the magnitude of '97 - '98 either. Still we all have to wait and see if debt busting scenario suggested by the author in your post comes to pass. I don't think it will be as bad as he thinks - but it won't be pretty.