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To: BigBull who wrote (80966)	12/7/2000 9:34:29 AM
From: kollmhn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

A recession induced reduction of oil demand is a real possibility. Yet, I am forced to wonder if OPEC has forgotten the lesson it learned less than two years ago. Namely, that if it is willing to forego less than 10% of its production, it can increase its revenues by 100%, or more. Now, if they have forgotten this simple equation, then I agree that we will be in for unpleasnant times in OSX and E&P land. However, if they have remembered it (and I think they have)then oil will be at $20-25 come recession, depression, or whatever. To me, that means the great fundamentals of this sector are here to stay until OPEC turns stupid.

To: BigBull who wrote (80966)	12/7/2000 3:23:27 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Buenos Dias, Senior Bullski. Really enjoy your economic analysis. You were way ahead of the pack in the Spring/Summer of 99' vis a vis your analysis of the Asian economies and the great importance of same to incremental demand growth in the energy markets. Have no doubt your recent posts will prove equally valuable. Can't really add much of value to what you've offered, my friend. As posted last summer and since, I've a maverick perhaps even an eccentric approach to making money in the market that I doubt would work for most people. Don't do a lot of detailed economic digging any more than I do a lot of fundamental, quantitative or even technical analysis in my work. Once I have a sense of what the key considerations are that are driving a trend or about to reverse one, I don't pay much attention to anything else UNLESS it catches my attention as a "game altering" piece of information. It was an unexpected remark from a close friend during my senior year at Rutgers that first alerted me to the fact that am not as much of an information gatherer as most other people seem to be. Apparently that's had a lot to do with how my investment style developed. Ricardo was one brilliant dude! Plus he had a photographic memory. But, he was also very sparing in praising others(G). So, he caught me off guard one day when he said, "Your memory is better than mine because you only remember what's important". Wish that were entirely true, lol. But it does help to account for my lack of interest in detail work once I have a working hypothesis. More importantly, don't like predicting things all that much. And not simply because predicting or forecasting is very dicey. Rarely recognized is the psychological dynamics that surround what happens when we make a prediction. Suffice it to say it's human nature to take a certain pride in such mental constructs and therefore to become emotionally attached to them. Once that happens it's all too easy to lose a good deal of the flexibility so important to being successful as an investor OR trader. Knowing that, I just develop a rough idea of where we might be going and then concentrate on watching for signs of twists and turns along that path. That's where tape reading, sentiment vs news, and day by day alertness come in. In the present situation the economy is slowing rapidly and we don't know how far down it will go. We are in a Bear Market. And the patch peaked in Sept (a few late cycle stocks in Oct). The earliest to recognize the emergence of those trends, and raise a lot of cash have been the most successful in preserving the lion share of the very large profits garnered in the 1st 9 months of this year. Now, it's a matter of monitoring the downtrend day to day to watch for twists and turns till the market forms at least a good tradable bottom. Best Iso