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To: BigBull who wrote (80996)	12/7/2000 5:53:21 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Near a short term bottom in tech? Based purely on perception. Techs are still warning, but no longer are they having such a big impact. Intel warned after the bell and initially all techs were down and now they've bounced back and even INTC is trading higher. I think many (falsely) see this downturn as being short lived. Too many comparisons to 1998 imho. Greenspan will bail us out mentality. We'll see I guess.

To: BigBull who wrote (80996)	12/7/2000 9:36:32 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 95453

Bottom in oil & gold soon ? A timing and forecasting service that I subscribe to is predicting a low for gold and oil for around Dec. 9, 2000. This prediction is primarily for gold, however. So this Friday or Monday would be the low. They previously predicted the oil low of July 28. The low point for some of the oil stocks was usually about 1 or 2 days BEFORE, sometimes 1 day after. I made some nice money buying E&Ps around that low. (would have made more if I had know not to get options that were WAY deep out of the money) I expect to be buying E&P's Friday and Monday, expecting to sell in January / February. As many posters have pointed out, there has been divergence between E&P stocks, and Oil and Gas prices. So it looks likes oil will dip, stop, and then both oil and stocks will head up together, once investors see that there is a credible bottom put in for oil prices. As soon as the election is settled, the media will probably report on Energy Crisis III : Inside America's Wallet or something like that.

To: BigBull who wrote (80996)	12/7/2000 10:34:06 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Bull. None of that's at issue. But wait for THE bottom?? Am patient but not THAT patient!(GG) Remember early August? That was very much like a Bear Market rally because I can remember quite a few folks here were very skeptical about it. Based on the posts it was easy to see they didn't play it or by the time they did it was mostly over. Though it didn't last much more than a month that run was one of the most profitable 4-6 week periods of the year for me. But when I say "trade" for ST gains am talking about a few weeks in most cases. Very rarely do a day tripper, a one night stand or a few days flipper(g). But a good ST rally? Damn straight I'll trade it. And so will you once we get these last few months get further behind us. The truth is, Bull, Bear Markets provide some of the most powerful short to intermediate term rallies on the way down to the primary bottom. My main rule is play those rallies very cautiously with only part of the capital I had invested during the preceding Bull Mkt. In fact, have already been in that mode for over a month as my cautious posts and trading comments have demonstrated for those who read them during that period. In mid-Sept went to about 20-25% cash. As we got into October I realized that we'd seen something more significant than a short term top and gradually sold important positions into every rally. Right now am between 75-80% cash and feel fortunate to have held onto about 90% of the profits that were in my account in mid-Sept. Some of that result is due to late cycle stocks like MWP, TCLPZ and RTN.B that I sold in October and into early November not far from their highs. You're just a little pessimistic about investing/trading right now. And you've probably fared better than most on this thread, some of whom I'll bet have given back most of what they made from Jan thru Sept. But more important, am very glad you're back posting regularly. Your wit, insight and grasp of the macros that create LT trends have made you one of the best contributors to the thread from when I first began reading SI, over a year before I joined. Best Isopatch